The probability that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates at its next meeting on March 18-19, 2025, is very low.

According to current market expectations and statements from Fed officials, there is only about a 3% chance of a rate cut at this meeting.

Instead, markets are more focused on a possible rate cut occurring in June 2025, depending on economic data, particularly inflation and employment figures.

The Fed has been cautious, waiting for more signals before adjusting rates.

As for the probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged, it is currently very high, over 97%, which means the Fed is expected to maintain the current rate of 4.25% to 4.50% for now.

However, stay tuned for Jerome Powell's press conference after the decision on March 19, as his statements could provide clues about future rate cuts, possibly in May or June 2025.