GM... Market Briefing ☕📈

Market Outlook (UTC)

🟨00:00-03:00 → start, markets opening. 💤
🟩04:00-08:00 → Foreign bond buying & investment in Japan dropping. PBOC injecting liquidity. Still figuring out how to predict PBOC’s moves—so far, as long as they withdraw more than they inject, Yuan won’t inflate. If I predict green but PBOC drains liquidity, it’ll just turn into a wick.
🟥09:00-11:00 → Koreans shorting as usual.
🟩12:00-15:00 → PPI down → PCE likely down → Fed may consider rate cuts. Even if they don’t cut, BTC can still rise because the government needs money.
🟥15:00-17:00 → slam from Jane Street's algo traders.
🟩18:00-00:00 → RRP dropping. Yesterday’s drop was only $5M, but it should go lower before FOMC.

📊 Market Recap
BTC dumped and pumped, closing above 83K. Inflation cooling down makes the Fed look like geniuses for holding rates—but in reality, inflation dropped because millions lost their jobs. Instead of creating jobs, the Fed is killing them.📉 RSI: 44


Inflation YoY is down in Q1. If the Fed cuts rates next week, March inflation will be even higher.
Even without a cut, March inflation is expected to be higher than February.

If the Fed holds rates, they’ll sacrifice RRP to keep market liquidity.
If the Fed cuts rates, RRP won’t hit zero yet.
If RRP does hit zero, BTC goes back to 100K+. Sounds like a win, no? 🚀

📉 PPI dropping → PCE dropping too.
Why? Demand is weak. More layoffs, more homelessness, retail sales down. Even Jamie Dimon raised recession odds from 30% to 40%.

🚨 If PPI goes up, DXY won’t rise—because that kind of PPI increase is fake.

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source: @hoteliercrypto