Bitcoin (BTC) has regained its upward momentum after a sharp correction, reaching as high as $83,000 during early Asian trading on Wednesday. The cryptocurrency market rose by 3.5%, with a global market capitalization rising to $2.67 trillion.
The CPI data released tonight is crucial and may serve as a key guide for the market's short-term direction:
If inflation is slightly higher than expected, the Federal Reserve may delay interest rate cuts again;
Even if inflation meets or falls below expectations, the timing for rate cuts is likely to be postponed until the second half of the year.
According to the FOMC interest rate probability data:
A rate cut in March is almost out of the question;
The probability of a rate cut in May is about 45%;
The probability of a rate cut in June is as high as 93%.
If the CPI data is favorable, coupled with a smooth resolution of the U.S. government funding issue by March 15, the expectation for a rate cut in May may further increase.
I personally lean towards a CPI around 2.9, which could lead to a rebound of several thousand points in the market, easing the heavy downward sentiment seen recently.
Historical experience shows that extreme market conditions often give rise to reversal opportunities. A significant bottom may gradually form from the end of this month to the beginning of next month. Although the market is currently under pressure, the essence of investing is to navigate through cycles—bull and bear markets are the norm, and the key is to maintain patience during the troughs and stay calm during the peaks.
For ordinary investors, the most prudent strategy right now is to:
Strictly control positions and maintain sufficient liquidity;
Wait for the market direction to become clear before making new investments.
After all, the market cannot fall forever, nor can it rise indefinitely; what truly determines returns is the ability to accurately capture opportunities at critical moments.
