Ethereum now resembles a balloon being tugged by a mischievous child: in the short term, it may be dragged down by various 'bad news,' but in the medium to long term, as long as a few key issues are resolved, it is likely to rise back up.
Clearly inform you of three possible futures.
1. Short-term for the next 1-3 months: rollercoaster-like fluctuations.
Prices are like riding an elevator: they may bounce back and forth between $1400 and $1600.
Mainly held back by three things:
The Federal Reserve is still raising interest rates (money is more expensive, and everyone is afraid to invest recklessly).
Bitcoin big brother is not performing well (if Bitcoin doesn't rise, other coins are unlikely to perform well either).
Ethereum has its own worries (for example, it often 'bugs out' before technical upgrades).
2. Medium-term 3-6 months: there is a chance to turn around.
You need to watch for two 'super positives':
Ethereum 'transforms' into a safer wallet; after the Shanghai upgrade, it can store money and earn interest, similar to bank deposits.
Large funds are starting to enter the market; BlackRock's ETF fund is growing bigger, and the wealthy are finally willing to hold long-term.
If it can hold above $1600 at this time, it may very well surge to $1800 in one go, near last year's bear market low.
3. Long-term over 1 year: it is very likely to return to its peak.
Ethereum's 'moat' is getting deeper.
Half of the world's NFT and DeFi projects run on it, just like WeChat is to social networking.
Every day, tens of billions of dollars circulate in its ecosystem; the more money, the more prosperous the ecosystem.
In the next three years, it may rise to $2000-$3000, but it will definitely experience countless ups and downs in between.
What should ordinary people do?
For those currently holding ETH:
If your cost price is below $1400, you can play dead and wait until next year's upgrade; after all, it can't drop much lower.
If the cost price is high, quickly reduce your position by half when it rebounds to $1600; don't expect to double, preserving your capital is the most important.
Those without ETH want to get in:
Don't rush to bottom fish! Wait until the price drops to around $1400 to buy in batches, use spare cash, and don't go all in.
Pay attention to Ethereum ETF funds, such as BlackRock's IBIT; it's 100 times less stressful than directly trading coins.
Remember these three sentences for survival.
Don't trust 'expert predictions': the big names in the coin circle who said ETH would go to zero last year are now secretly hoarding coins.
Always keep 20% cash: in case of a black swan event, like the Mt. Gox incident, it can save your life.
Don't try to outsmart the big players: those calling for 'bottom fishing' and 'top escaping' are mostly baiting by the market makers.
Finally, a heartfelt statement: Ethereum is the 'second' in the crypto circle; as long as Bitcoin doesn't crash, it has a chance. But remember! In a casino, the ones who last the longest are not the best gamblers, but those who can control their impulses.
For the next strategic direction, I plan to help everyone find those altcoin profit opportunities; a tenfold return is definitely possible. Like and comment, and I'll help you strategize the entire bull market!
