1) After BTC reserves, but does not increase substantial purchasing power, is it bearish or bullish?
A. The US federal policy supports Bitcoin reserves, so should various consortiums, institutions, local states, and other countries also follow suit?
A1 has provided a new final reference for sovereign wealth funds, pension funds, mutual funds, etc., encouraging them to increase Bitcoin allocation.
A2 Honduras, Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador are also preparing to launch Bitcoin strategies.
B. Although reserves do not have incremental funds, the SEC's repeated statements, such as withdrawing lawsuits and accelerating ETF approvals, indicate that this is a slowly favorable policy, right?
C. The US will include confiscated Bitcoin into national strategic reserves (at least alleviating selling pressure, effectively locking up funds)
D. Taxpayer funds will not be used to buy Bitcoin, but oil, equipment, and gold can be sold to buy Bitcoin.
After Trump took office: Why impose crazy tariffs, why arrange for Doge (Jinyiwei) to strictly investigate government departments, why form Bitcoin strategic reserves, why provoke the ongoing deterioration of Russia and Ukraine, why confront the Federal Reserve?
The ultimate goal is crisis transfer: solving high inflation and debt crisis.
The Trump group is expected to aggressively suppress Bitcoin prices before the rate cut (in June), likely selling off the least useful gold (hence why gold has remained high during this period; the Trump group is about to sell gold at high prices, speculating on Bitcoin reserves, buying Bitcoin at low prices, raising the price, then selling Bitcoin, and later buying gold at low prices, transferring debt while retaining gold).
A new currency war system has formed.
2) What is the current macro environment like?
2020-2021, interest rate cuts + balance sheet expansion, significant rise
2021-2023, interest rate hikes + balance sheet contraction, significant drop
2024-now, expectations of interest rate cuts + expectations of balance sheet expansion, so??
Starting in March speculation: should we maintain inflation and then cut rates, or enter a recession and then cut rates (I personally believe the first possibility is greater)?
Why do you say that?
Let's look at the path to rate cuts: (unemployment rate rises, government contracts cut, housing prices plummet, leading stocks in banking/technology crash, daily consumer stocks surge, economic data deteriorates) so the Federal Reserve is forced to cut rates.
Note, this is forced, meaning the interest rate will be cut even before entering a recession! (Expected to cut rates in June)
A 0.25% rate cut is expected to bring in about 100 billion USD; the 2025 expectation of 0.75% = 300 billion USD. If the balance sheet stops shrinking, it is expected to bring in 400 billion USD. If money printing begins, it is expected to bring in 500 billion USD. All of the above are conservatively estimated to be around 800 billion USD, with about 20% diverted to the crypto market, making it quite reasonable for Bitcoin to rise to 150,000 USD.
3) Tokenizing Coinbase stock to enable trading of US stocks on the Base blockchain. Tokenization of US stocks, a new story or old wine in a new bottle?
Coinbase plans to launch 24/7 Bitcoin and Ethereum futures contracts in the US?
The Sto plan was proposed as early as 2017 and has been implemented, but the policies at that time were very unclear. This time with Trump on stage and the SEC clarifying policies, I hope it can have a better story start. So if it's favorable, what sectors should we be positioning ourselves in?
DeFi sector + RWA sector
DeFi sector Aave, MKR, and other related ETH collateral lending platforms (if they can recover, then ETH may also have a chance to rise)
RWA sector Ondo, Polyx, and other related government bond tokenization and real estate tokenization platforms.
4) Currently favorable policies in various countries
A The new exchange will list open-ended Bitcoin futures contracts.
B Japan's cryptocurrency reform bill will be submitted to Congress after cabinet approval.
C Spain (BBVA) has received approval from the Spanish financial regulator to offer Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) trading services to clients.
D The Thai Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has officially approved USD₮ as a compliant cryptocurrency, making it legally tradable in the Thai market and expected to be used for payments.
5) What major events will happen this month?
March 12, 20:30 CPI (below expectations, data favorable)
March 15, 00:01 deadline, if Congress and Trump do not reach an agreement before then, the US government will shut down (high probability it will take a holiday)
A shutdown will affect the collection of economic data, delaying the release of important economic reports such as Consumer Price Index (CPI), unemployment rate, and retail sales data. About 850,000 federal agency employees may be furloughed. The independently operating Federal Reserve will continue to function normally; of course, the FOMC meeting scheduled for March 20 will not be affected. (The impact of the shutdown cannot be estimated at this time; there have been several shutdowns before.)
March 18, NVIDIA Technology Conference, can it lead the US stocks to rise?
March 20, 2:00 AM FOMC meeting: The Federal Reserve can be quiet, which is favorable for index stabilization.
March 20, 2:30 AM Powell speaks
On March 21, the SEC's cryptocurrency working group held its first roundtable meeting, which is designed to provide a clear regulatory framework. The theme of this first meeting was 'Defining Securities Status: History and Future Pathways,' one of the agenda items was compliance path design.
March 21, institutional Q1 quadruple witching day, fell so much, institutional rebalancing and buying is not a big problem.
6) How to judge the big direction?
Expected to complete in 2 days
Current Bitcoin price 80000, looking at 86000
Ethereum price 1890, looking at 2200
Big direction
Before May, significant drop
A significant rise starting in June
If the US economy goes into recession, Bitcoin will drop to 50,000; if there is no recession, Bitcoin will stabilize at 72,000. The above point 2 mentions that I personally believe rates will not wait until a recession to be cut.
Personally, I think this stage is a buying opportunity (of course, if you're stuck in losses, I won't say much), buy significantly in drops, buy small amounts in small dips, and don’t buy if there’s no drop. The gap of 77500 that was mentioned earlier has been filled, and the gap below is unlikely to be filled.
The market's volatility, both surging and plummeting, is certainly beyond our prediction. Whether it rises or falls sharply, it will not allow speculators to quickly get in and out; only steadfast holders are unafraid! Even gold, as a hard currency for global reserves, experiences significant price fluctuations, let alone Bitcoin?
So don't focus on short-term price fluctuations; just buy when you think it's the right position, and keep a long-term perspective. Stay away from those who create anxiety, away from noise, and reduce information interference.