1) Moody's downgraded the U.S. credit rating, and last night the U.S. stock market fell, while BTC showed an upward trend, which is very strange!

2) U.S. Treasury bonds with a 30-year maturity were heavily sold off, causing yields to rise sharply.

3) Yields on Japanese government bonds with 20, 30, and 40-year maturities surged sharply. As the world's third-largest economy and a major bond market, pressure in Japan's bond market could trigger a rise in global borrowing costs.

4) The U.S. House Budget Committee passed a tax and spending bill, expected to increase the deficit by trillions of dollars, meaning the U.S. government will need to increase its debt.

Regarding the current state of the U.S., it either needs to reduce taxes or increase tariffs, with a high probability of increasing tariff rates.

Looking at the four points above together, the long-term outlook is definitely a potential risk and dangerous situation. The trap has been set, waiting for the fuse to come out, to see when it will explode. (Expected within 3 months, possibly just before the interest rate cut)

From a long-term perspective: this time is likely to peak around 118,000 (expected to be completed before mid-June), then significantly drop to around 90,000, and when it takes off again, it will aim for 150,000.

As for BTC, a decline could lead to recovery, which is a strong breakout signal (yesterday I thought Moody's rating would also impact BTC, but the volatility transmitted from the U.S. stock market was minimal; I can only say that my short-term judgment was incorrect, but that does not mean there is no long-term impact, as I mentioned above).