Fundamentals:
In just three months, the crypto market has experienced a massive liquidation of altcoins, totaling approximately $10 billion, surpassing the scale of the FTX collapse. Altcoins have seen significant declines three times, with drops exceeding 80%, while Bitcoin's drop is less than 30%. The price remains above the peak of the 2024 bull market, indicating an increase in Bitcoin's dominance, and the altcoin season has not yet arrived. However, some altcoins have bottomed out and are consolidating. The longer the consolidation lasts, the more it can undermine confidence, benefiting the manipulators to wash and accumulate, which is favorable for future market conditions.
Technical Analysis:
BTC: In mid-February, a rebound was predicted, followed by a light position two weeks later. A new downtrend began on February 24, progressing in two phases to 76, in line with expectations. The daily chart shows five consecutive bearish candles, with increased trading volume; short-term downside potential is limited, and the fourth wave of decline is nearing its end, but the bearish trend has not changed, and we expect a bottom to form. Looking at the 4-hour chart, after a volume-driven decline, a pinbar rebound occurred, indicating a potential short-term bounce. Watch for support at 785-775, with 75 being a critical defense line, and resistance levels at 81-82.
ETH: In mid-February, an Ethereum rebound was predicted, followed by a new decline two weeks later, progressing to 1800 in stages. After a brief breach this morning, it rebounded, aligning with expectations. The daily chart shows a significant correction with increased trading volume; there is support at the current position, but a short-term adjustment may occur. On the 4-hour chart, after a volume-driven decline in the early morning, momentum weakened, leading to a pinbar market, with a possible continuation of the rebound during the Asian session. Watch for support at 1840-1800, with resistance levels at 1960-2000.
Altcoins: A few altcoins are consolidating at the bottom and are not following the mainstream coins' decline, seemingly forgotten, but are actually being washed by manipulators. Focus on these coins but avoid chasing highs. Popular altcoins often follow the trend of mainstream coins, posing significant risks; be mindful of risk control.
