GM... Market Briefing 🌍📊

Market Outlook (UTC+0) 🕰️

🟩00:00 - 08:00 Japan's GDP is up, meaning inflation is rising. No worries—08:00 - 10:00 wobbles are normal due to PBOC.

🟥08:00 - 11:00 Market closing hours.

🟩12:00 - 15:00 JOLTS data incoming.

🟥15:00 - 17:00 Jane Street moves in.

🟩17:00 - 23:00 RRP is down. A bit of red during 04:00 - 06:00 is normal due to market closure.

Now I see where I went wrong 🤦‍♂️—my mindset was still stuck in the Biden era. Back then, the data was "beautified" to mask the recession. NFP was dominated by part-time jobs, while JOLTS and ADP always looked strong. So, I got used to inverting the data, and my analysis worked out just fine.📉 RSI 25

Then came Trump, and suddenly, all the data looked terrible. I thought, "No need to invert anymore; the real data should be enough." But then I came across the CB Employment Index, which showed exactly where I messed up.

The CB Employment Index was revised down 😳—yes, REVISED DOWN. I was too slow to process that. And the worst part? I actually wrote about it myself.

Trump wants rate cuts, but Powell isn’t having it. I thought the actual data was bad enough to justify it. But Trump dramatized it further to make it look even worse 🙃🙃. So, where’s the limit? How long will this go on?

Yves Has Given the Signal 🚀

Yves already warned us back on 24th Feb. Some followers even reminded me, but I ignored them because I was too focused on US M2.

Now, Yves says this is a buying signal—so let's put it to the test.

Trump’s bottom level = SPX -10%

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Source: @hoteliercrypto