Large-scale anchoring: Weekly - Daily recursion
- Weekly core logic:
The weekly upward segment started from 49000 is still ongoing, ultimate target maintains the range of 150,000 to 200,000. Defense bottom line: 74000 (weekly segment damage threshold), previous pullbacks without breaking are healthy corrections.
- Daily positioning:
Currently running a weekly upward segment within a daily downward segment (109588→78258), needs to break 98000 to confirm the end of this pullback.
【4-hour rebound process verification
1. Structure confirmation:
- Starting from the low point of 78258, the 4-hour upward segment, theoretical target 95000+, ultimate challenge at 98000 pressure zone.
- Key defense: 81000 (4-hour segment continuation bottom line), if lost, need to be alert for daily level expansion risks.
2. Trump policy disruptions:
- Short-term bearish landing: U.S. government strategic reserve policy did not meet market expectations (only locking 200,000 BTC seized, no new purchases), triggering a sharp drop to the target area of 84000-86000.
- Mid-term potential benefits: 200,000 BTC effectively locked, reducing selling pressure on the circulating supply, building momentum for subsequent trends.
1-hour tactical path
BTC short-term script
1. Current state:
- Running the 1-hour pullback in the 4-hour upward segment (has completed the retest of 84000-86000), night market may have a second test of this area forming a second buy.
- Offensive and defensive nodes:
- Bullish bottom line: 81000 (4-hour segment lifeline)
- Short defense line: 95000 (1-hour segment strong and weak boundary)
2. Two types of evolution:
- Strong structure: Build 1-hour center above 84000 → Accumulate strength to break through 95000 → Impact 98000 ultimate pressure.
- Weak structure: Break below 81000 triggers 4-hour segment damage → Daily level second bottom risk.
ETH linkage framework
- 4-hour rebound positioning: Starting from the low of 1993, target 2500-2750.
- Current rhythm:
1. Running the 1-hour pullback in the 4-hour upward segment, pay attention to support in the 2100-2150 range.
2. Breaking 2250 will confirm the start of the third 1-hour upward attack, linking BTC to test 2500 pressure.
Key time window and strategy
1. Weekly level signal:
- Bullish bastion: Weekly close stabilizes above 98000 → Confirm the end of daily pullback, starting the main upward wave.
- Short trap: Break below 74000 → Weekly segment damage, target revised down to the 60,000 range.
2. Short-term operation guide:
- BTC: Gradually layout long positions in the 84000-86000 range, stop loss at 81000, target 95000→98000.
- ETH: Test positions in the 2100-2150 area, stop loss at 2000, first target 2350, add positions if breaking 2500.
【Market sentiment and cycle positioning】
- Current stage: Weekly pullback end + Daily bottom-building period, altcoins' oversold rebound momentum is accumulating.
- Data verification:
- BTC has realized volatility decreased to a yearly low (18%), with an average increase of 127% after historically similar cycles.
- ETH perpetual contract funding rate returns to neutral, short squeeze risk increases.
Core conclusion: Short-term fluctuations are a new round of attack energy accumulation, maintaining key support, and the 150,000 target before the end of the year is expected.