Large Pancake and Small Pancake Multi-Cycle Structural Deduction
【BTC 1-Hour Tactical Path】
1. Structure Confirmation:
- The 1-hour retracement segment that started from 92810 has completed three 15-minute structures (corresponding to the 1-hour trend type in Chan Theory), currently at the end of the fourth 1-hour downward segment.
- Key Verification Point: If it breaks through 87000, it confirms the initiation of the fifth 1-hour upward segment; if hindered, it will retrace to 84500 to build a center of gravity.
2. Attack and Defense Thresholds:
- Bullish Bottom Line: 81500 (lower edge of the center of gravity), if broken, daily retracement risk escalates to 78000;
- Rebound Target: 95000 (theoretical value of the segment moving away from the center of gravity) → 98000 (daily type pressure).
3. Weekend Time Window:
- Scenario 1 (Bullish): After holding 81500, initiate a 1-hour rebound, on Sunday to Monday attacking 90000→95500;
- Scenario 2 (Consolidation): Build a 15-minute center of gravity between 84500-87000, gather strength to choose a direction.
【ETH 4-Hour Rebound Process】
1. Structure Positioning:
- Confirmed a 4-hour second buy from the low of 1993 (the 1-hour retracement segment ends above 2100), currently initiating a 4-hour upward segment.
- Target Levels:
- Basic Target 2400-2550 (previous center of gravity pressure area);
- Extended Target 2750 (daily level measured increase).
2. Operation Anchoring:
- Increased Position Signal: Stabilization near 2150 (15-minute bottom division);
- Risk Control Bottom Line: 2050 (second buy invalidation threshold).
【Multi-Cycle Joint Strategy】
- Weekly: Continuation of the upward segment starting from 49000, ultimate target 150000+ (not bearish until 74000 is broken);
- Daily: 109588→78258 daily retracement segment awaits breakthrough of 98000 to confirm termination;
- 4-Hour: The rebound segment starting from the low of 78258 targets 95000+, must stabilize above 81000 to continue.
Operational Instructions:
- BTC: Try long between 84500-86000, stop-loss at 81500, increase position upon breaking 87000;
- ETH: Gradually layout between 2150-2200, stop-loss at 2050, first target 2400.
