Black Friday's Long and Short Life-and-Death Game Will Be Held Tonight!
1. The fate of the global capital markets hangs on two swords of Damocles:
1. 21:30 Beijing Time - U.S. Non-Farm Payroll Report
2. 03:00 - Powell's Statement on Monetary Policy
2. How will the waves of data and policy shake the market? The following four possibilities will determine tonight's direction:
1. Non-Farm Payroll Shock, Policy Soothing (Probability 25%)
If the employment data collapses sharply, Powell may urgently release dovish signals, and the market will experience a deep V-shaped roller coaster. The stock index could plummet 4% instantly, breaking key support, and then rebound under the expectation of policy support. However, historical experience shows that the prosperity after this 'shot in the arm' often signals a chronic adjustment of slow declines in the following week.
2. Stable Data, Dovish Tone (Probability 35%)
If the non-farm data meets expectations, combined with a warm policy breeze, tech stocks may see a retaliatory rebound. The Nasdaq is expected to recover 500 points of lost ground. However, one must be wary of the 'expected bottom support' trap - once the market prices in interest rate cut expectations, any slight movement could trigger a second collapse.
3. Double Kill Nuclear Bomb, Liquidity Crisis (Probability 20%)
If non-farm data snowballs, and Powell unexpectedly strikes hawkish, the capital market will face a 'Black Friday' of blood and turmoil. The stock index could plummet 7%, triggering a chain of programmed trading blowouts. After the steep decline, there may be a technical recovery, but referencing the bear market cycle of 2023, subsequent adjustments could last up to a hundred days.
4. Stable Data, Hawkish Surprise (Probability 20%)
Non-farm data remains calm, but Powell insists on striking the market, with bulls and bears fiercely battling within a narrow range. There may be a 'rise then fall' strangling market within the day, but the real danger lies in the change after consolidation - like the calm before the storm, where funds quietly flow to reposition. Retail investors, like startled birds, could see any fluctuation become the final blow to their confidence.