As of today, the probability of interest rate cuts in the Federal Reserve's meetings in the first half of 2025:
March 20: Probability of no change in interest rates 94.0%, Probability of a 25 basis point cut 6.0%;
May 8: Probability of no change in interest rates 66.9%, Probability of a 25 basis point cut 31.4%;
June 19: Probability of no change in interest rates 25.0%, Probability of a 25 basis point cut 51.3%.
P.S.: Compared to last week's changes, the probability of a 25 basis point cut at the May 8 Federal Reserve meeting has increased by about 10%, while the probability of a 25 basis point cut at the June 19 meeting has decreased by 1.4%. It can be preliminarily predicted that a 25 basis point cut in the first half of the year is likely to be locked in at the meetings in May or June, with the highest possibility currently appearing to be on June 19, and the likelihood of consecutive cuts is temporarily low.
The most ideal scenario is still a cut in June; if there is a cut in May and no cut in June, there will definitely be a significant drop in June-July, with a rate hike from Japan in July.