Intraday price volatility: Intense battles between bulls and bears

On March 5, 2025, Dogecoin (DOGE) experienced dramatic volatility. The price briefly fell below $0.19265 in the morning, with an intraday decline of 3.59%.

However, it rebounded strongly to $0.19945, an increase of 3.56%, with trading volume surging from $1.881 billion to $2.811 billion. This 'V-shaped reversal' indicates intense market battles between bulls and bears, and the short-term direction remains unclear.

Observing the candlestick chart, prices are frequently testing support and resistance levels within the narrow range of $0.19 to $0.20, and trading volume is showing corresponding fluctuations. In the morning session, the market showed a 'price drop with volume shrinkage' trend, which often indicates quiet trading activity, with market participants taking a wait-and-see approach. However, in the afternoon, the market changed dramatically, with 'price rise with volume increase' indicating that buying momentum suddenly strengthened and market activity significantly increased.

The Williams indicator currently does not show that the market has entered overbought or oversold territory, suggesting that the market may still be in a relatively balanced state. However, it is worth noting that the MACD histogram has released some signals indicating that bearish momentum is gradually weakening.

Key technical signals: Contest for support levels and potential breakout patterns

The current price of DOGE is fluctuating around the key psychological level of $0.20, with fierce contention between both sides. If DOGE can successfully stabilize above $0.20, its short-term target may point to the resistance level of $0.244. However, from a technical perspective, the daily moving average system (especially the 5-day and 10-day moving averages) is still in a bearish arrangement, and the death cross signal has not yet been lifted, indicating that the market's technical outlook remains weak.

It is worth noting that Dogecoin has long been oscillating within a 'symmetrical triangle' pattern. If the upper trend line of this pattern (around $0.25) is effectively broken, it could trigger a rally of more than 500%, with price targets aiming for $1 or even $2. On the other hand, if DOGE falls below the support level of $0.19, it may trigger a new wave of selling, with prices potentially dropping further to $0.15.

Market sentiment divergence: Whales buy the dip vs. retail investors exit

On-chain data shows that since March, whale addresses have been continuously accumulating DOGE, with a single-day purchase volume exceeding 1 billion coins, and the purchase cost mainly concentrated in the range of $0.19-$0.20, which can be seen as institutional recognition of DOGE's current bottom region.

In stark contrast to the whales' positive stance, retail trading volume has declined by 30% year-on-year, and discussions about DOGE on social media have also cooled to a freezing point, reflecting a significant lack of confidence among ordinary investors in DOGE.

Nevertheless, the current market sentiment bears a striking resemblance to the state before the bull market kicked off in 2021. If DOGE can leverage external events, such as the 'Trump Administration Efficiency Department (DOGE)', it is entirely possible to reignite the fervor for meme coins and lead the market into a new trend.

Dancing on the edge of a knife or waiting for dawn?

  • Short-term traders: Focus on the $0.19-$0.20 range, break above $0.20 may allow for small long positions, with stop-loss set at $0.185;

  • Long-term holders: If the price stabilizes above $0.25, consider adding positions in batches, with a target of $0.7;

  • Risk warning: Beware of the 'low-volume rebound' trap and avoid high leverage operations.