Market Risk Warning and Opportunity Observation (April 2)

【Macroeconomic Policy Dynamics】

1. Trump's Tariff Policy

- Expected to announce a reciprocal tariff plan today, with pharmaceuticals possibly exempted

- The baseline tax rate may be set at 20%, with some trading partners enjoying preferential rates

- Bitcoin surged last night, reflecting market expectations of moderate policy strength

2. Federal Reserve Officials' Statements

- Daly (San Francisco Fed): Business investment activity remains resilient

- Barkin (Richmond Fed): The bond market has priced in recession risks, tariffs may raise inflation and impact employment

【Liquidity Risk Warning】

- Liquidity crisis for altcoins intensifies (typical case: $ACT collapsed 30% in one minute)

- Binance official notice: Some altcoins may face withdrawal of market makers and adjustments in leverage

- Special warning: Tokens without actual ecological support are at risk of going to zero

【Market Status Scan】

1. On-chain Activity

- Activity in the three major ecosystems: SOL/BNB/BASE has sharply declined

- New project $PUMP oversubscribed by 327 times, but 90% of the amount was taken by institutions

2. Key Event Calendar

- April 18: $TRUMP token unlocks 40 million pieces (current market value 410 million USD)

- GameStop completes financing through additional issuance, market speculates it may follow MicroStrategy in allocating BTC

【Operational Strategy Suggestions】

1. Asset Allocation

- Bitcoin remains the only crypto asset with institutional-level liquidity

- Suggest keeping altcoin holdings within 10% of total positions

2. Risk Control

- Avoid participating in low liquidity altcoin trading

- Suspend leverage operations until Federal Reserve policies become clearer

- Focus on market reactions after the announcement of tariff details tonight

>> The current market is in a "high volatility + low confidence" state, suggesting the adoption of a "Bitcoin core position + extremely cautious wait-and-see" strategy. Historical experience shows that before the start of a rate cut cycle, the market is unlikely to have sustained trends, keeping ample USDT positions is a wise choice.<<