mid chaos, lies opportunities. Let’s break it down:
1. AVIV Ratio Z-Score Rebound
On April 8th, the AVIV Ratio Z-Score rebounded exactly at the same level as Sept 6th, 2023 — which marked the start of a strong uptrend.
If history rhymes, this could be a pivot point
2. Realised Capital Multiplier (365D)
From @_checkonchain: the multiplier still signals low liquidity. Historically, this kind of environment aligns with market bottoms.
Liquidity = fuel. We're still at the gas station.
3. Short-Term Holder MVRV
Currently reading oversold. In a bull market context, that’s typically a reversal signal.
Translation: short-term pain, long-term gain territory.
4. STH Supply in Profit/Loss Ratio
Oversold
Beginning to rebound
This aligns with past cycle re-accumulation phases. The weak hands are exhausted.
55. Halving Price Regression (HPR)
The famous Bitcoin Rainbow Chart isn’t dead yet
Even though this cycle hasn’t followed halving narratives… price just bounced exactly above the Halving Price Regression line.
Coincidence or structure?
6. Daily Price Distribution Skewness
Since Feb 8th: Negative skew — market was leaning bearish
On April 7th: Flipped positive
This flip historically marks trend change thresholds.
But Here's the Caveat...
$BTC is still highly correlated with the SPX.
And #SPX isn’t showing a clean reversal yet. A nuke in equities = contagion risk for crypto.
So while signs point to a rebound… we need SPX to play nice
TL;DR
On-chain data = Bullish
Macro = Cautious
Early signals are here. But patience and discipline are still our best tools.
Novices panic and react, while real Gs observe, then act.
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Have a productive week ahead.
