Global markets face four major risk resonances this week
Risk Warning
① Escalation of political games
- Tonight, Trump will deliver a policy speech on the East Coast time, involving tariff escalation and adjustments in international relations. In the context of recent diplomatic friction between the U.S. and Ukraine, the market is concerned about possible signals of aggressive policies that could trigger volatility in stock and currency markets.
② Monetary policy games
- The Federal Reserve's special hearing starts tonight, with the independence of institutions facing challenges. If the contradictions between the regulatory framework and the administrative system become evident, it may shake the pricing foundation of dollar assets. Coupled with Powell's policy briefing on Thursday, it is expected to strengthen the hawkish stance and clearly rule out the possibility of short-term interest rate cuts.
③ Impact of employment data
- Friday's non-farm payroll report will serve as a recession verification indicator. With the risk of government shutdown alleviated, if the data remains weak (combined with recent layoffs in the tech/financial sectors), it may trigger a repricing of major asset classes.
④ Trading liquidity risk
- The implied volatility index of U.S. stocks has surpassed a critical threshold, and markets where algorithmic trading accounts for over 60% face the risk of liquidity traps. Historical data shows that if the VIX index remains above 25 for more than three trading days, it can easily trigger a chain reaction of quantitative strategy liquidations.
Configuration Suggestions
Key time node before the March FOMC meeting, it is recommended to:
1. Maintain cash positions ≥ 40%
2. Prioritize hedging tools with gold/USD currency pairs
3. Maintain defensive sector allocation in equity assets
Note: The current market is in the institutional gaming phase, and ordinary investors should adopt a "wait-and-see-follow" strategy to avoid left-side trading.