Nico Frost
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Bitcoin: Rebound or Bull Trap? Analyzing the Technical Picture
Bitcoin ($BTC ) has rebounded following the release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data, boosting optimism that the broader economic outlook may improve next month.
On February 28th, Bitcoin dropped below the $80,000 mark, reaching a new low of $78,258 before recovering some losses. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $84,610, testing resistance around the $85,000 level. A sustained breakout above this resistance could indicate a trend reversal, but technical indicators remained mixed.
Technical Outlook: Bearish Sentiment Persists
Despite short-term rebounds, the overall trend remains downward. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 25.7, indicating neutral conditions, while the MACD remains in negative territory (-3.525), reinforcing selling pressure.
Although the stochastic oscillator and Commodity Channel Index (CCI) are temporarily showing positive signals, longer moving averages (MA) continue to point downward. The daily BTC chart shows that the price remains below key resistance zones ($85,000–$90,000), with strong selling volumes confirming bearish dominance.
Amidst intensifying bear pressure, the Fear and Greed Index plummeted to 10 points on February 27th, corresponding to the extreme panic zone. Such levels were last observed in June 2022, following Bitcoin's drop to $17,500 (-37% in a month).
At the time of writing, the indicator sits at 20, also signaling widespread panic among market participants.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
On the 4-hour chart, a moderate recovery followed the sell-off, but it has yet to develop into a sustained uptrend. The key resistance lies between $84,500 and $86,000, while support is found in the $78,000–$80,000 range.
If $BTC manages to break above $85,000 with strong volume, it could trigger a rally toward the $90,000 level. However, without a confirmed breakout, the likelihood of another pullback and an extended downtrend remains high.
The Average Directional Index (ADX) at 44.7 confirms the prevailing bearish trend. If BTC fails to overcome key resistance levels, downward pressure may intensify further.
Conclusion
Despite the current rebound, most technical indicators suggest that the bearish momentum is still in play. The dominance of negative signals from moving averages, weak momentum, and a negative MACD suggest that this recovery might be a bull trap.
If $BTC fails to establish support above $85,000, the probability of another downward wave remains high.
📢 If you're interested, check out my previous article, where I analyzed the key factors driving the market.
💬 If you found this article useful, please give it a like and subscribe for more content. Your comments are also highly appreciated!
#BTC #analysis #bitcoin #BitcoinForecast #MarketPullback
On February 28th, Bitcoin dropped below the $80,000 mark, reaching a new low of $78,258 before recovering some losses. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $84,610, testing resistance around the $85,000 level. A sustained breakout above this resistance could indicate a trend reversal, but technical indicators remained mixed.
Technical Outlook: Bearish Sentiment Persists
Despite short-term rebounds, the overall trend remains downward. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 25.7, indicating neutral conditions, while the MACD remains in negative territory (-3.525), reinforcing selling pressure.
Although the stochastic oscillator and Commodity Channel Index (CCI) are temporarily showing positive signals, longer moving averages (MA) continue to point downward. The daily BTC chart shows that the price remains below key resistance zones ($85,000–$90,000), with strong selling volumes confirming bearish dominance.
Amidst intensifying bear pressure, the Fear and Greed Index plummeted to 10 points on February 27th, corresponding to the extreme panic zone. Such levels were last observed in June 2022, following Bitcoin's drop to $17,500 (-37% in a month).
At the time of writing, the indicator sits at 20, also signaling widespread panic among market participants.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
On the 4-hour chart, a moderate recovery followed the sell-off, but it has yet to develop into a sustained uptrend. The key resistance lies between $84,500 and $86,000, while support is found in the $78,000–$80,000 range.
If $BTC manages to break above $85,000 with strong volume, it could trigger a rally toward the $90,000 level. However, without a confirmed breakout, the likelihood of another pullback and an extended downtrend remains high.
The Average Directional Index (ADX) at 44.7 confirms the prevailing bearish trend. If BTC fails to overcome key resistance levels, downward pressure may intensify further.
Conclusion
Despite the current rebound, most technical indicators suggest that the bearish momentum is still in play. The dominance of negative signals from moving averages, weak momentum, and a negative MACD suggest that this recovery might be a bull trap.
If $BTC fails to establish support above $85,000, the probability of another downward wave remains high.
📢 If you're interested, check out my previous article, where I analyzed the key factors driving the market.
💬 If you found this article useful, please give it a like and subscribe for more content. Your comments are also highly appreciated!
#BTC #analysis #bitcoin #BitcoinForecast #MarketPullback
Disclaimer: Includes third-party opinions. No financial advice. May include sponsored content. See T&Cs.
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