Source: Huali Huawai
I remember in the article on New Year's Eve this year, we optimistically stated: we continue to be optimistic about the overall performance of the crypto market in the first quarter of this year. If no black swan events occur, we may welcome a good market in February and possibly see Bitcoin at $110,000.
But the reality is that we are facing Trump's tariff policy, a $1.5 billion hacking incident, and the Argentine president's LIBRA token incident... all of which have led to large-scale liquidations in the market. This further confirms the saying we often mention: the market is unpredictable, and we cannot control the market; the only thing we can control is our own positions.
Let's look back at the time of the FTX crash in November 2022, when the fear and greed index was only around 20. However, the liquidation a couple of days ago directly caused the fear and greed index to drop to 10, which is equivalent to the lowest level since the bear market of 2022. People's emotions have turned to extreme panic at an astonishing speed, as shown in the figure below.
However, for those who manage their positions relatively well, encountering such a market is also a good opportunity. Because the occurrence of such extreme market conditions seems to mean that we might have already approached the local bottom of the phase.
1. What should we do when the market fluctuates greatly?
At this stage, we may need to pay a little more attention to policy factors and capital flows. For example:
- Trump's tariff policy
If the Trump administration continues to announce new tariff policies in the coming weeks, it may continue to put short-term pressure on the market.
- ETF inflow/outflow data
If the situation remains unclear, there may continue to be outflows, which will further negatively impact market sentiment. If inflows start again, it may be a relatively good short-term signal.
In terms of specific position management, we can take this opportunity to make some new optimizations. For example:
1) Continue to optimize the portfolio
If you are not a technical expert in short-term trading, then continue to hold your Bitcoin and do not easily give up your chips. At the same time, you can carry out necessary profit-taking based on your holding cost and target (still the old saying: buy in batches and sell in batches).
If your risk tolerance is relatively low, you can continue to reduce your altcoin holdings, especially those that show no bullish catalysts and are weak in rebounds. You should strictly carry out stop-loss or take-profit operations according to your risk tolerance and not hold onto them stubbornly. Of course, if you have already carried out strict profit-taking operations and you are optimistic about a certain altcoin you bought, you can continue to hold that altcoin's position.
If your risk tolerance is relatively high and you still enjoy researching and buying altcoins, focus on studying those relatively strong altcoins. For example, when BTC declines, they do not fall or their decline is minimal, and when BTC stops falling, they rebound first, and so on. Try to avoid buying those with significant declines that you feel have fallen enough or think are very cheap. Even when gambling, do not bet on weak projects, and be clear about your reasons for buying. The simplest thought is that if you cannot quickly list 3 reasons for buying it within 10 minutes, then do not buy it.
Also, continue to maintain a certain liquidity position (USDT/USDC) to cope with possible new black swan events.
2) Continue to maintain learning
Reduce the time spent watching the market and consider doing things you previously wanted to do but lacked the energy to pursue, or things you are interested in. Staring at the market does not bring you direct results; just set up necessary monitoring alerts. If staring at the K-line with your mind could pump the market, I would definitely stay awake 24 hours a day to watch it.
Alternatively, you can consider continuously leveraging the utility of your existing funds in some ways. For example, idle funds can pursue better investment returns (be cautious about project risks when participating in on-chain stablecoin investments, and when participating in exchange stablecoin investments, pay attention to lock-up periods; it is not recommended to lock your assets), as shown in the figure below.
For example, you can also use tools and platforms like Rootdata to find and research potential airdrop projects, engage in some arbitrage operations using funding rates, etc. In short, use your preferred methods or methods you understand to keep your investment portfolio in a state of continuous growth. Sometimes, small money is still money; do not always fantasize about making $1 million at once and look down on various $1,000 small opportunities.
Additionally, it is not to say that only in a bull market can one make money; in fact, if we ignore the concepts of bull and bear markets, there are various opportunities to make money at any time in the market. The question is whether you can discover them, understand them, execute well, and achieve better returns.
2. Is there still hope for the market ahead?
In a recent article, we also mentioned: I will continue to remain optimistic about the overall market trend going forward. If no larger-scale black swan events occur, I believe that after some consolidation and correction, if we can simultaneously see some new recovery driving factors in narrative, economy, or policy, then the market may still have some new opportunities ahead.
Of course, the opportunities mentioned here do not mean that you will see a big bullish line tomorrow and achieve financial freedom the day after. In an unpredictable economic market, we just need to think about some forward-looking aspects. It is best to abandon the fantasy of getting rich quickly and place a longer-term perspective on your investments.
At the current stage, if the so-called bull market wants to continue, new catalyst events need to be created to attract more new buyers to participate. The possible events that can be seen now (relatively important) include:
- US Bitcoin national strategic reserve
But this matter has actually been hyped for quite some time, and some expectations have likely already been reflected in past prices.
Currently, we just need to pay attention to the progress of this event. Although it is still a very large and important catalyst for the market, its impact is mainly long-term. Moreover, before this matter is finalized, Bitcoin's price will definitely continue to grind for a long time until the Americans have obtained enough chips to possibly make it really happen.
The White House will hold a meeting on March 7, and we can pay attention to whether the issue of strategic reserves will be mentioned.
- Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, crypto regulatory policies
If you usually pay attention to market dynamics, the FED (Federal Reserve) and SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission) will be seen very frequently, as their every move has a significant impact on the market.
In fact, since last year, the market has been focusing on expectations related to interest rate cuts. But to be honest, the current stage of the crypto market itself is at most a small market. We will accept the liquidity overflow from stocks and other financial markets due to interest rate cuts, but do not expect liquidity to prioritize flowing into the crypto market.
I see that some KOLs on the internet believe that the crypto market will become the largest reservoir for the US dollar. Personally, I think this statement may seem somewhat delusional at least at this stage. It might be better to say that the crypto market will bear part of the liquidity overflow from the US dollar, and in the future, US Treasury bonds, US stocks, and crypto will jointly bear the role of a reservoir. Currently, the total market value of US Treasury bonds is about $32 trillion, US stocks about $60 trillion, and crypto about $2.8 trillion.
Moreover, the current so-called market value of the crypto market is merely an exuberant performance under 'unclear policies'. Once the United States and other countries further clarify some regulations and policies regarding the crypto market, accompanied by at least 90% of garbage projects going to zero or shutting down, then the market value of the crypto market may become a true reflection of its value.
But 'unclear policies' are precisely the opportunities in the crypto market over the past decade. The crypto market has grown from a market value of $3 billion in March 2015 to $2.8 trillion in March 2025, and Bitcoin has risen from under $500 in 2015 to nearly $110,000 at its peak. Throughout this process, there have been countless wealth-making opportunities (of course, there have also been countless losses in the dark forest).
With the continuous development of the crypto market and the ongoing deep participation of institutions, and the follow-up of various regulatory or policy measures, the opportunities and imagination space left for ordinary people in the crypto market can only become smaller. However, if we continue to ignore the short-term and medium-term fluctuations and look at it from a longer-term perspective, the crypto industry is still in a phase of rapid upward development.
Until now, I can still see many people saying the crypto industry is a scam, Bitcoin is a tulip... Anyway, how to say it is others' freedom. I will not care about or refute such statements; as long as we believe that the future prospects of this industry are still bright, that is enough.
3. At the end of the article, let's continue to look at what other noteworthy or interesting things have happened in the past few days:
- Bybit hacker laundering march
Reports indicate that the Bybit hacker (a North Korean hacking organization) has successfully laundered more than half of the stolen ETH into BTC using ThorChain. The hacker has transferred at least 161,490 ETH to ThorChain through 3,934 different bridging transactions, using a large number of blockchain tools for jumping, including Asgardex, DeFiSwap, FortunaSwap, GemWallet, LiFi, ShapeShift, TrustWallet, etc.
Due to the hacker's laundering, ThorChain's trading volume hit a record high last week. Perhaps the situation seems serious, or because of ThorChain's inaction on this matter (the community's view is actually mixed; some criticize ThorChain for inaction, while others support ThorChain's complete decentralization approach), on February 28, the anonymous core developer of THORChain, Pluto, announced his withdrawal from the project, as shown in the figure below.
- SOL ETF may have passed?
On February 28, CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange) announced it would launch SOL futures on March 17, providing micro contracts (25 SOL) and large contracts (500 SOL), as shown in the figure below.
Based on previous experiences with BTC ETF and ETH ETF, SOL futures may be paving the way for the passage of the SOL ETF.
- Will Base chain become the fastest EVM chain?
On February 28, Base announced it would launch Flashblocks on the mainnet in the second quarter (this technology is developed by Flashbots and is implemented through parts of blocks published by block builders, and it has already gone live on Base Sepolia testnet). This upgrade will shorten the effective block time from 2 seconds to 200 milliseconds, making Base the fastest EVM chain to date, as shown in the figure below.
- SEC says MemeCoins are not securities!
On February 27, the SEC stated in a recent announcement that the issuance and sale of MemeCoin may not be subject to federal securities laws. MemeCoin is generally not a security, but more like collectibles. However, they also warned that not all MemeCoins are exempt from securities laws, and there is still a risk of fraud with MemeCoins, as shown in the figure below.
Is the SEC's plain speech trying to say: the president's issuance of coins to harvest the leeks is legal, equivalent to the leeks voluntarily buying a kind of collectible, but those MemeCoins competing with the president's coins may be illegal and fraudulent, haha.
- SEC withdrew the lawsuit against Consensys
On February 27, the SEC withdrew the lawsuit against Consensys (the parent company of MetaMask), which means that the battle that began in 2023 over Consensys providing staking and swap services in violation of securities rules has temporarily ended. As shown in the figure below.
Consensys can finally get back to work. On February 28, MetaMask announced that it would add support for Solana in the second quarter and for Bitcoin in the third quarter, while completely revamping the UI/UX and eliminating gas fees through account abstraction, among other upgrades.
With the resolution of this lawsuit, some analysts believe that the previously uncertain MetaMask token MASK may be back on the agenda, and Linea's LINEA token may also be launched ahead of schedule this year (2025).
