According to forecasts from bank #StandardChartered , Bitcoin may continue to plummet to the $69,000 - $76,500 range due to capital outflow pressure from ETFs and the short-selling strategy of hedge funds. Could this be a buying opportunity or just the beginning of a deeper decline?

Bitcoin Is Entering A Strong Correction Phase

Bitcoin has been under significant downward pressure in recent days. After breaking below $80,000, the king coin dropped to $78,258 by the end of February, before recovering to $84,979.

🔹 Standard Chartered forecasts: Bitcoin may continue to drop further, with important support levels at $69,000 - $76,500.
🔹 Main reason: Selling pressure from funds#ETFbitcoin and the increase in short positions by hedge funds.

Capital Outflow Pressure From ETFs And Hedge Funds

One of the major factors affecting this price drop is the capital outflow from Bitcoin ETF funds.

🔻 On February 26, ETFs recorded $1 billion in withdrawals, adding to selling pressure in the market.
🔻 The total net purchases of ETFs have decreased by $2.5 billion since the US elections in November 2023.

Some experts believe that the capital outflow from ETFs may only reflect carry trade transactions – a strategy where investors borrow Bitcoin at a low price, buy through ETFs, and sell at a higher price. However, Geoffrey Kendrick, head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered, noted that the scale of these transactions is not large enough to cause such a strong capital outflow.

Instead, hedge funds are significantly increasing their short positions, indicating that institutional investors are betting that Bitcoin will drop even further.

What Are The Trading Data Warning About?

Data from the Futures Trading Commission (#CFTC ) shows:

📉 The short position of hedge funds has risen from $7.9 billion to $11.3 billion since the US elections (as of February 18).
📉 The amount of Bitcoin held through ETFs had increased from $23.5 billion to $40.2 billion, but has recently decreased to $37 billion.

What does this mean?
🔹 Institutional investors are increasing their short positions, reflecting expectations that Bitcoin will continue to decline.
🔹 Meanwhile, most ETF investors still hold long positions, making them vulnerable to panic if Bitcoin continues to drop significantly.

Could Bitcoin Drop Like In August 2024?

Kendrick compares the current situation to August 2024, when Bitcoin plummeted from $70,000 to $50,000 in just one week. If this scenario repeats, Bitcoin could lose an additional 5.5% of its value, bringing it down to $69,000 - $76,500.

Another factor to watch is the economic policy of President Donald Trump. Recent statements about raising tariffs have raised concerns among investors and may continue to negatively impact the crypto market.

Buying Opportunity Or Continued Deep Decline?

Although Bitcoin is under significant pressure, Kendrick believes that the price range of $69,000 - $76,500 could be a good buying opportunity if the market stabilizes.

"If Bitcoin falls to $69,000 - $76,500, that will be the price level I want to buy in," Kendrick commented.

🔹 If selling pressure from ETFs and hedge funds eases, Bitcoin could see a strong recovery from this level.
🔹 But if capital outflows continue and investor sentiment becomes more negative, a further decline is entirely possible.

Things To Watch In The Coming Days

📌 Capital outflow from Bitcoin ETFs – if it continues to rise, prices could drop further.
📌 Hedge fund activity – if short positions continue to expand, selling pressure will be very high.
📌 Economic policy of the US administration – sudden changes could affect Bitcoin.

Whether it is a dangerous signal or a buying opportunity, the upcoming volatility of Bitcoin will not be for the faint-hearted. Are you ready for the next shocks in the market?

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