$BTC Can we still reach the other side this time? BTC 8W has broken, it's time to reclaim everything

Let's discuss the future expectations and personal operations from the perspectives of economic policy, fundamentals, market sentiment, certainty, and risk control, for reference

1. Economic Policy, 2025 can be confirmed as a year of monetary easing, the pace of easing depends on economic data, but does not affect the direction of easing. From a policy perspective, the overall trend is bullish. The most recent interest rate meeting was on 3.19, with an expectation of a 25 basis point rate cut. We mainly focus on the trend of the US dollar to judge the market direction

2. Fundamentals

In the cryptocurrency space, both Bitcoin and Ethereum have ETFs, increasing the audience of the market. However, US market players typically chase highs and sell on dips; during market panic, they tend to sell off. Currently, the outflows of Bitcoin ETF and Ethereum ETF have begun to converge. As long as the market starts to warm up, this portion of funds will flow back in

Recently, there has been a continuous decline, but the market cap ratio of BTC has stopped rising, indicating that the majority of altcoins have no more room for squeezing. The price of Ethereum is a typical reflection of this, which gives altcoins a seasonal opportunity. If there is an altcoin season, it will definitely be led by Ethereum

3. Market Sentiment, with the continuous decline, the panic index once reached extreme panic. Judging from the reactions of major communities, it has gradually started to cool off. February has been a dismal month. Cultivate when no one is paying attention, and reap when the crowd is cheering. The main force can only hold chips during the decline; in the market, the bulls are always the main force. They hold so many chips and want to pump the price more than anyone else. They just need to continue reshuffling and collecting chips to make the price pump easier, ultimately cashing out. This logic applies to both altcoins and Bitcoin, so it will be pumped sooner or later

4. Certainty, the only valuable asset in this market is Bitcoin; other altcoins are just a game of funds controlled by the main force. So no matter how the market declines, do not put large amounts of money in altcoins. By then, Bitcoin may be at 150k, and altcoins may not return to their previous highs. The main position should be Bitcoin, secondary position Ethereum, and small positions in popular altcoins. This configuration is the most stable

5. Risk Control, according to the Kelly formula, with a risk-reward ratio of 2 to 1 and a win rate of 40%, it is recommended to use 10% of funds for a single trade. The core principle is to never go all-in; the market will not stop, opportunities will always exist, and risk should be prioritized.