On Monday, U.S. stock indices opened, with the Nasdaq index rising by 1.6% during the session, and the S&P 500 index rising by 1.06%. Gold fell by 1%, Brent crude fell by 2%, and the U.S. dollar index fell by 0.17%. This Thursday at 02:00, the Federal Reserve's FOMC will announce its interest rate decision and economic outlook summary. Recently released CPI and PPI data were weaker than expected, prompting the market to anticipate the timing of the next rate cut.
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The Financial Secretary of the Hong Kong government, Paul Chan, stated that as the digital asset market thrives, the demand for stablecoins is expected to further increase. Stablecoins can leverage their programmable features to develop diversified innovative solutions, automating and optimizing financial service processes. It is noted that many market participants are very interested in this, and after the (Stablecoin Regulations) take effect, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority will promptly handle the received license applications so that qualified applicants can conduct their business. The Financial Secretary of the Hong Kong government, Paul Chan, stated in (Speeding Up Progress to Set Sail Steadily) that the development of digital assets has boosted related business in financial institutions, with the total trading volume of digital assets and related products by local banks in Hong Kong reaching HKD 17.2 billion last year, and the total amount of digital assets under bank custody reaching HKD 5.1 billion by the end of last year. The (Stablecoin Regulations) have been passed by the Legislative Council and will come into effect on August 1, with the Hong Kong government cautiously promoting the development of stablecoins, providing a new paradigm for the global stablecoin market, which is beneficial for attracting more institutions from different parts of the world to issue stablecoins in Hong Kong based on actual application scenarios, significantly increasing the liquidity of related activities and the competitiveness of the Hong Kong market. VanEck's Head of Digital Assets, Matthew Sigel, stated that small-cap listed companies claiming to establish large-scale crypto reserves can be seen as scams, likely just to inflate the stock prices of small companies, many of which are traded on Nasdaq.
U.S. listed company SharpLink Gaming invested $463 million to increase its holdings of 176,271 ETH, becoming the company with the largest ETH holdings among publicly traded companies. Japanese listed company Metaplanet increased its holdings by 1,112 BTC, bringing its total holdings to 10,000 BTC. Santiment data shows that currently there are 6,392 addresses holding between 1,000 to 100,000 ETH, with an increase of 1.49 million ETH in the past 30 days, a growth of 3.72%. QCP stated that despite the ongoing tensions in the Middle East, BTC has not shown signs of panic selling. After initial volatility triggered by news from Iran and Israel last Friday, the crypto market benchmark assets have gradually regained lost ground, and similar rebounds have also occurred in other major crypto assets and U.S. stock index futures. Institutional accumulation remains a key support factor, with spot BTC ETFs recording net inflows for the seventh consecutive week. However, cautious sentiment still exists; if the situation escalates further, global risk assets could face greater shocks. 10x Research stated that against the backdrop of rising oil prices, strong U.S. Treasury yields, mixed employment data, and the Federal Reserve's cautious stance, BTC's macro fundamentals are quietly strengthening. The longer the consolidation period, the greater the likelihood of a breakout. In this week's FOMC meeting, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell is expected to maintain a neutral stance, with geopolitical risks diminishing. Seasonal factors in summer may lead to BTC continuing to consolidate in the short term, but the shift in macro signals for the medium to long term lays the groundwork for potential increases within the year.
Last week, the U.S. BTC spot ETF inflow was $1.37 billion, of which BlackRock's IBIT saw an inflow of $1.1159 billion. Last week, the U.S. ETH spot ETF inflow was $528.2 million. The total market value of stablecoins increased by 0.63% in the past 7 days, reaching $251.542 billion. CoinShares reported that concerns over geopolitical conflicts put pressure on risk assets last week, but digital assets showed strong resilience, recording a net inflow of $1.9 billion, achieving inflows for the ninth consecutive week. The total inflow during this continuous inflow period has reached $12.9 billion, with year-to-date inflows hitting a new high of $13.2 billion. Cointelegraph reported that despite a series of unexpected changes in macroeconomic and geopolitical situations, market consensus is not bearish, and the bull market is far from over. The market believes BTC is preparing to enter a new price discovery phase, with an expected BTC price of $170,000, while $113,000 is the only obstacle. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) announced four senior personnel appointments, including two members with digital asset experience, further signaling SEC Director Paul Atkins' friendlier stance towards the crypto industry. This Thursday at 02:00, the Federal Reserve's FOMC will announce its interest rate decision and economic outlook summary, with market focus on whether the Fed will release any signals regarding the timing of future rate cuts. Recently released CPI and PPI data were weaker than expected, prompting the market to anticipate the timing of the next rate cut, which is likely to occur in September. Citi analysts pointed out that the market may currently be underestimating the possibility of a rate cut.
Jefferies economist Mohit Kumar stated that Federal Reserve Chair Powell may emphasize the intensifying uncertainty surrounding economic growth and inflation prospects, indicating a tone of not rushing to cut rates, but if economic conditions warrant, the Fed will be prepared to respond. Goldman Sachs maintains its previous forecast of gold prices reaching $3,700 per ounce by the end of 2025 and $4,000 per ounce by mid-2026. On Monday, U.S. stock indices opened, with the Nasdaq index rising by 1.6% during the session, and the S&P 500 index rising by 1.06%. Gold fell by 1%, Brent crude fell by 2%, and the U.S. dollar index fell by 0.17%. Circle's price surged by 20%, raising its market capitalization to $35 billion. BTC rose by 2.2%, and ETH rose by 3.6%. The performance of BTC in this cycle is not significantly different from past cycles, with increases of 1,076% from 2015 to 2018, 1,007% from 2018 to 2022, and 656% from 2022 to now, indicating that market demand is keeping pace with its maturing trajectory. Ahead of the Federal Reserve's meeting on Thursday, market focus is on the Israel-Iran conflict. This time, the black swan did not result in the usual straight-line drop, indicating a marked improvement in market resilience, with support evolving from retail investors to large institutions, no longer a disorganized crowd. Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas stated that BlackRock's BTC spot ETF has surpassed $70 billion in assets, becoming the fastest ETF to reach this milestone in just 341 days. During the seasonal lull of summer, Bitcoin has maintained high resilience, and the likely interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve later this summer and the U.S. (GENIUS Stablecoin Act) may become a catalyst for a market reversal. After prolonged consolidation, when macro factors reverse, a bull market is expected.