BTC has broken below 80,000 twice recently, at 78,000 on February 28 and 76,000 on March 11. During the downward process, BTC is consciously testing the support level of 71,000 that I mentioned before (in the previous social media post). The lows are being lowered, and the weak trend continues. Does this mean a bear market is coming? Let me make a superficial inference.

The important driving force behind the rise of cryptocurrencies is regulation. Once the dominant player, the United States, opens up the legitimacy of cryptocurrencies, all cryptocurrencies, including BTC, will benefit. The benefits will come from increased trading channels and liquidity, and even hot money deployed in blockchain will increase. However, this regulation has not yet materialized in the U.S. Additionally: regarding BTC strategic reserves and the Bitcoin bill, I categorize them under regulatory policies. In this series of policy promotions, Trump is just a mouthpiece. Therefore, from the perspective of favorable U.S. policies, I have no energy to hope or expect. In other words: favorable policies landing means unfavorable outcomes.

Bitcoin is likely to drop to the 70,000 to 80,000 range in the coming weeks. Only when the tariff war ends and the Federal Reserve resumes interest rate cuts will major cryptocurrencies return to their previous peak levels. Considering the impact of the decline in the stock prices of the seven major U.S. tech companies on market sentiment, if the U.S. government eases its strong stance in international trade, a rebound in U.S. stocks may drive a recovery in cryptocurrencies, but this is certainly not something that can be reversed in the short term. Therefore, a prediction of the 70,000 to 80,000 range is reasonable.

From a technical perspective, the daily chart forms a double top pattern and has broken below the neckline support at the end, which is indeed a long-term bearish structure. In defensive awareness, pay attention to the conversion of the 25-day moving average at 89,460. If the daily K-line entity breaks through 89,460, it is considered a bullish reversal. As for other medium- to short-term divergences, they will be digested in the 70,000 to 80,000 range. It is not advisable to trade frequently; if you want to realize the dream of wealth in the crypto world, you still need to continuously improve your trading plan. #掌握市场 #