Ethereum has performed very poorly this year and has fallen to the vicinity of the bull-bear dividing line. It has lost the charm of the previous bull market in 2021 and has been completely overshadowed by Bitcoin, solona, and sui. Ethereum's current short position volume has reached a historical high. If it does not pull up, retail investors will have no chance to play. The biggest pain for many retail investors in their lives is to hold Ethereum for a long time. Affected by the leader of the cottage, Ethereum, many cottages have fallen by 99%, which is equivalent to killing the cottage. A 99% drop is not much different from returning to zero. TLM has retreated 99.91% from its high point to date.
Currently, the number of altcoins has exceeded 36.4 million; during the altcoin boom from 2017 to 2018, the number of altcoins was less than 3,000, and from 2013 to 2014, it was even less than 500. In the next 12 months, $36 billion worth of altcoins will be unlocked, averaging $700 million per week. So can the retail investors still hope for an altcoin season?
Now V God is disappointed with the crypto space, but aren't we all disappointed with V God? The big A has not fallen below 3,000, while Ethereum has already fallen below 2,700. The once firm belief is gradually collapsing. If V God gives up, where should the believers go?
Based on the current trend of Ethereum, it needs to reclaim the $2,750 position as a support level to regain market confidence. Breaking through this level could trigger new bullish momentum, with a rebound to the $3,000 position opening up upward space, as the previous resistance level is located here.
It is also possible that international hedge funds have opened many short positions in Ethereum, suppressing Ethereum on one hand while spreading various negative news. At the slightest hint of news, they dump the market to create panic.
Last week, Ethereum's spot ETF saw a net inflow of $420 million, surpassing Bitcoin's $204 million. Yet Ethereum just won't rise, most likely because Wall Street big players are also selling. Of course, in this bull market, everyone is only trading two: Bitcoin and meme coins. Ethereum has been delayed from breaking out due to high on-chain fees, and V God does not support memes. However, Americans continue to buy. A catalyst is still needed to ignite market enthusiasm.
Now MicroStrategy has increased its position by $742.4 million, purchasing 7,633 Bitcoins between February 3 and 9, 2025. The company currently holds 478,740 Bitcoins, with an average price of $65,033. The big brother is buying again and again, just one word: buy, buy, buy. Who dares to disagree?
Many people are currently asking whether there are any opportunities in altcoins besides Bitcoin.
Currently, the speculation sentiment in the altcoin market is relatively low, and liquidity is poor. In such circumstances, the opportunities for profit in the altcoin market are clearly shrinking, and more of the movements are driven by some linkage effects.
Currently, most altcoins are in a low-level consolidation phase. As retail investors, all we need to do is remain patient. If the market re-enters a speculation cycle in the future, those altcoins with strong fundamentals and good chip structures are likely to start first and become the focus of capital chase.
The focus for the future can be placed on the Solana chain and Sui chain. We can observe the popularity on the chain; as long as the on-chain heat is high enough and lasts long enough, the potential for targets on these two chains will grow.
The future trend of Bitcoin will still depend on the performance of the US stock market. If the US stock market stabilizes, Bitcoin may gather strength to break through $100,000 again. For Ethereum, only institutional accumulation counts as a positive factor. It still lacks a narrative to truly break out, and current hopes are pinned on the next upgrade, which is expected to start around mid-March.
Finally, the market has only seen a decrease in activity. There are currently no good targets to attract funds, so it is merely a waiting period. However, investors should not be careless during this time, as it is often the beginning of new narratives and hotspots.
Regardless, market expectations still exist. For instance, Trump hasn't started making statements about crypto yet, the ETF applications for altcoins are still pending, and Ethereum's upgrade has not yet arrived. The market has not ended!
Currently, the entire market is particularly pessimistic because altcoins have fallen too badly. The key issue is that Bitcoin has not yet crashed, which is the reason for many people's panic. If Bitcoin retraces to $85,000, what will happen to other altcoins?
Ethereum is entering a typical downward channel, leading many altcoins into a bear market early. Until a bottom is reached, altcoins should not be engaged. The current market situation is equivalent to shortening the bear market time and going through it once again. Be cautious with altcoins before a major bottom appears.
The bull market is still ahead. Nowadays, it's basically all according to the script. In the first half of the year, we look at the bullish fireworks, and in the second half, we look at the bearish fireworks. In the first half, retail investors get cut, and in the second half, analysts get cut, and next year, institutions.
