The darkest moment of Dogecoin and the glimmer of light of believers
The recent sharp drop in network activity and the market unlocking tide of Dogecoin have become the focus of everyone's attention. The DOGE chain data has a comprehensive warning: the withdrawal of whales and the superposition of the unlocking tide have increased short-term risks.
DOGE's network activity has fallen to the lowest point since October 2024. Specifically, there are only 66 large transactions per day, which is nearly 88% lower than the peak. The number of active addresses has also fallen below 60,000, and the participation of retail investors has decreased significantly. In addition, the market will unlock more than 465 million US dollars in the next 7 days, and DOGE is also among them, which undoubtedly puts a lot of pressure on the market.
From a technical point of view, the MVRV ratio has a death cross, which has often heralded a sharp drop in prices in history. Although the RSI is oversold, the momentum of the rebound seems insufficient. In this case, it is recommended that everyone wait and see in the short term and pay attention to the key support level of $0.25. If it falls below this position, there may be more room for decline.
Historically, DOGE has plummeted by 26%-44% after the MVRV ratio has a death cross. Now, the technical side has sounded the red alarm. Although some people are still waiting for Musk's shouting, the risks in the market cannot be ignored.
Darkest moment? History tells us that DOGE has repeatedly "exploded after false death". The hibernation of giant whales may be the calm before the storm. Musk's tweet can ignite the market, and faith has never disappeared.
From a technical point of view, RSI is oversold and the strong support of $0.25, the opportunity may be left to the brave. Is the unlocking tide a crisis or a turning point? Perhaps it is the smoke bomb of the main force to absorb funds. At this time, faith may be more important than gold.
On-chain indicators show that whale trading volume fell 69% week-on-week, and network activity shrank 97% year-on-year. The death cross of the MVRV ratio further confirmed the bearish signal.
In terms of price trend, the current support level is $0.25. If it is lost, it may drop to $0.20. The rebound needs to break through the 50-day moving average resistance of $0.332. Derivatives signals cannot be ignored either. The surge in option trading volume by 79% indicates an outbreak of volatility.
In general, the long-short game of DOGE has intensified, and the short-term direction needs to be broken. In this uncertain market, it is most important to stay calm and rational and do a good job of risk management.
