Market conditions change rapidly, and trading is about the present; you sing whatever song fits the mountain you're on. This round of the Bitcoin bull market is different from previous ones. This bull market is mainly characterized by policy games, technological innovation, changes in the micro-structure of the market, and shifts in dominant capital. Although Bitcoin's price fluctuated between 96,000 and 95,000 US dollars during the day, the black swan events at the exchanges should have been stabilized by now, right? The Bitcoin spot ETF has also shown a slow outflow state, which is still relatively small. In the past two days, Ethereum has seen an increase first, indicating that capital previously dominated by Bitcoin has started to shift to Ethereum. This wave of exchange hacks has effectively locked in Ethereum positions, indirectly continuing to push Ethereum's price higher. In this round of the bull market, the price of Ethereum has not changed significantly, while Bitcoin has consistently shown upward breakthroughs. Due to the competitive landscape of public chains, Ethereum's market value has been diluted, resulting in Bitcoin's upward breakthrough of new highs while Ethereum has not yet broken new highs, which is different from previous bull markets. Of course, we can also see that the path to the start of this bull market is completely different from historical patterns, driven by policy, and a regulatory logic of bulls. The Trump administration's crypto revolution is also reflected in the repeal of traditional financial institutions such as banks under SAB121, allowing large-scale custody of crypto assets. Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and others are accelerating their layout in cryptocurrency custody services, expecting over 50 billion US dollars in funds to re-enter this track within the next 12 months.

From the perspective of stablecoins, it has now reached nearly 207 billion US dollars. If it increases by 50 billion US dollars, it can reach over 200 billion US dollars. In the last bull market, the highest point was over 60 billion US dollars in market value, and this round has multiplied several times in market value. Therefore, capital is already flooding in, and the market is quietly changing. Additionally, Bitcoin's strategic reserves: the US is incorporating Bitcoin into its national reserve assets. Once this is implemented globally, it may trigger a response of imitation, forming a pattern of sovereign funds imitating one another. Once the US buys, other countries will start to buy gradually, leading to a frenzy of inflow. As the reserve plans of various states in the US are fully released, it will again affect market sentiment (FOMO). In the short term, the SEC's stance on Ethereum's spot ETF being able to achieve staking is gradually becoming more lenient, thus pushing the market. Currently, Ethereum's price is 2,700 US dollars; for contracts, you can try going long.

We can see that Bitcoin is approaching a liquidation of nearly 10 billion US dollars at 105,000 US dollars. After breaking through the 200-day moving average, its trigger is very terrifying. When it breaks 110,000 US dollars, it will enter a rising channel with no historical reference. That is, after breaking above 110,000 US dollars, its history will be rewritten, and there will be no reference points for rising to higher positions. From a micro data perspective, the bullish option for Bitcoin at 120,000 US dollars is very terrifying, with the maximum pain point being close to 5.1 billion US dollars at 100,000 US dollars on the 28th. Therefore, it should be able to reach 100,000 US dollars before the 28th. After two days of fluctuation, there may be a wave of increase. Whether this wave can stabilize at 100,000 US dollars and reach the position of 105,000 US dollars remains to be observed. Alright, that's all for today.#比特币走势分析