1: SOL "stress test" is about to start

A "stress test" about #sol is about to start on March 1st - 11.16 million SOL tokens worth $2 billion are about to be unlocked, which is equivalent to 2% of SOL's current market value. However, the scale of concentrated unlocking in a single day is close to 30% of SOL's average daily trading volume (estimated at a recent daily average of $700 million). If the sell-off is concentrated, it may cause a sharp price correction in the short term, but the probability is still very small, after all, SOL is very popular now.

The buying power from institutional investors and retail investors is strong enough, and I believe the market can easily resolve the liquidity shock brought about by this unlocking; we just need to pick up low-priced chips.

Second: FTX debt liquidation, how much can creditors recover?

Countdown to repayment in 2025, a cruel game of 'discounted compensation.' The FTX restructuring plan has officially entered the compensation phase, with the first round of repayments set to start in February 2025, but the rules leave creditors disheartened:

  • If 'going back to 2022': based on the #BTC $16,000 at that time, it is only one-sixth of the current market price;

  • The first phase of compensation amounts to $6.5 billion, paid out in cash. While this method results in creditors losing nearly 6 times the potential gains, it also avoids the risk of selling pressure on the entire market, and will provide some liquidity to the overall market.

The SOL tokens hoarded by FTX are the 'ultimate ammunition' in this debt repayment drama. The market is well aware: selling SOL for cash is already on the agenda.

This SOL unlock may just be a hurdle in the long evolution of the crypto world. In the short term, price fluctuations are inevitable; however, the dust settling from the #FTT赔款 debt liquidation means that the industry's biggest hidden danger will be dismantled.

The storm will eventually pass, and the survivors who navigate the cycle will always be those who respect the rules and fear the risks.

(Risk warning: the market is volatile, investment should be cautious, and this article does not constitute any advice.)