At 9:30 tonight, the unemployment data and PPI data for the week will be released. How will the market go tonight? Please see the following analysis
The initial unemployment data for the week ending February 8th in the United States will be released at 9:30 tonight. The previous value was 21.9, the expected value was 21.5, and the importance level was four stars. If this data is higher than expected, it will be good for the cryptocurrency circle and bad for the US dollar. Once the data is lower than expected, it will be good for the US dollar and bad for the cryptocurrency circle. However, from a comprehensive analysis of the fundamentals in many aspects, the initial unemployment data for the week to be released tonight is likely to be higher than expected. The data results will be good for the cryptocurrency circle and bad for the US dollar!
In addition, at 9:30 tonight, the annual rate of PPI in January in the United States will also be released. The previous value was 3.3%, the expected value was 3.2%, and the importance level was 3 stars. First, let's review the PPI data in December: the annual rate of PPI in December 2024 was 3.3%, slightly lower than the expected 3.4%, and a month-on-month increase of 0.2% (expected 0.3%). This data shows that inflationary pressure has eased moderately, and the market's expectations for the Fed's interest rate cut have increased. The latest CPI in January rose by 0.5% month-on-month, the largest increase since August 2023, and the core CPI rose by 0.4% month-on-month, both exceeding expectations. This has led the market to lower its expectations for the Fed's interest rate cut, and it is expected that there will be only one 25 basis point interest rate cut in 2025, which will be postponed to December.
-The current focus is: Fed Chairman Powell emphasized that he pays more attention to the PCE price index, and the PPI data will directly affect the PCE forecast. If the PPI in January is lower than expected, it may strengthen the expectation of interest rate cuts; if it is higher than expected, it may further suppress the expectation of interest rate cuts.
Combined with the differentiation of recent inflation data (CPI exceeds expectations but PPI may lag behind), and the Fed's policy stance, it is expected that the PPI annual rate in January may be slightly lower than or in line with market expectations (assuming that market expectations are similar to December, about 3.3%-3.4%). Therefore, the PPI data to be released tonight is likely to be lower than or in line with market expectations (the actual value is below 3.2%), which means it will be good for the cryptocurrency market, ease market concerns about inflation rebound, and push up expectations of interest rate cuts. Therefore, before the data results are released tonight, there is a high probability that the market will fall and pull back. After the data is released, it will rebound upward, then step back to confirm, and then continue to break upward. If the bitcoin price can break through the 98,500-99,000 mark, it is expected to sprint above 102,000.
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