Post 2024 Bitcoin Halvings: The Cycle that Matters—But Why Traders Miss the Bigger Picture
The 2024 Bitcoin halving seems far behind us, and as always, traders are focused on the potential supply shock. But this year, the true market forces go far beyond miner rewards. Here’s why the bigger picture matters more than ever.
What History Doesn’t Tell You
1️⃣ Halvings Don’t Cause Instant Pumps – Price speculation may spike before a halving, but the real gains usually materialize months after. Expect volatility right after the event, with the long-term trend unfolding later.
2️⃣ Macroeconomics Are Crucial – Each halving happens in a different economic landscape. The 2020 cycle was shaped by pandemic stimulus, while 2024 and beyond will be driven by inflation, interest rate policies, and growing institutional adoption.
3️⃣ Mining Economics Have Changed – Previous halvings saw inefficient miners capitulate. Today, miners are more efficient, leveraging new technologies and Layer 2 solutions, meaning supply dynamics have evolved.
4️⃣ Retail FOMO vs. Institutional Positioning – While retail often chases the post-halving hype, institutions make their moves quietly. Tracking on-chain data gives you insight into where smart money is positioning itself.
How to Trade Post-Halving in 2025
🔹 Watch liquidity trends – Don’t rely solely on past cycles. Focus on current macro factors.
🔹 Follow miner and institutional activity – These are the real market drivers.
🔹 Position before the crowd – Be ahead of retail reactions, not behind.
Bitcoin cycles may rhyme, but they never repeat exactly. Thinking beyond the halving narrative will set you apart and get you ready for the next one.
El Shaddai: (Hebrew: אֵל שַׁדַּי) – “God Almighty, the All-Sufficient One.” His grace sustains.