The altcoin season may be late, but it will never be absent.
Let’s start with the conclusion: the altcoin season will either kick off in March or July.
Imagine this: if the cryptocurrency market experiences a bull run this year and all altcoins, including Ethereum, go bust, what will happen to the market?
With Bitcoin fluctuating around 100,000, and all altcoins dead in the water, apart from a few large holders buying spot, the rest will have to play with leverage to make money. Then, if Bitcoin moves up or down by ten points, both longs and shorts will get wiped out. There’s no need for it to go up or down; as long as there’s daily fluctuation, it will never stop making money. Consequently, the market will become increasingly indifferent and lack liquidity. Don't even talk about attracting new retail investors; even seasoned ones will gradually lose hope and exit the market. Just like in Myanmar, retail investors who have suffered will all leave. Institutions will start cutting each other off: BlackRock will cut Fidelity, Fidelity will cut Grayscale, and Grayscale will jump up to take on BlackRock. Hahaha
The high-risk and high-reward financial attributes of the cryptocurrency market mean that those who enter are all gamblers, longing for financial freedom and social mobility. Do those who find even ten times leverage unsatisfactory care about one or two times in traditional industries?
Thus, a bull market in the cryptocurrency sphere must see a frantic bull run, a crazy bull run. It must have the legendary wealth-building myths of Dogecoin and Shitcoin from 2021 flooding social media platforms, causing retail investors to keep chasing and buying, attracting more new entrants from outside the circle to line up and contribute their capital. This also aligns more with human nature and serves their interests.
Without an altcoin season, apart from the diamond hands of large holders like a8 and a9 making value investments, which retail investor would buy at the high price of 100,000? With Bitcoin pushed this high, who are the chips being distributed to?
Without an altcoin season, according to AnAn's pattern of one falling for every one that rises, retail investors will increasingly refuse to buy in. Who will take the chips that market makers acquire? Who will take the chips from the coin issuers?
Some might say that unlimited leverage can be harvested. The counterparty of leverage is the exchange; it’s you gambling against AnAn, what does it have to do with BlackRock or the coin issuers? (If you lose at the Victoria with your soft currency, what does it have to do with the central bank? Of course, if the central bank finds someone to gamble with you at the table, that’s another story.) From another perspective, if it’s determined that there is no altcoin season, and the whale doesn’t make money from spot trading but only profits from leverage, then what’s the point of pushing Bitcoin from 1.5 to 100k? Wouldn’t it be better to just start at 1.5 and fluctuate every day?
Believe me, not only have you waited four years, but they have too.
