The current market pricing of the Fed's policy shift tends to be rational, but potential risks still exist. On the one hand, if the CPI data continues the trend of slowing down inflation (such as the core CPI exceeding 0.3% month-on-month), coupled with Powell's reaffirmation of the "data-dependent" stance, it may further suppress the expectation of interest rate cuts, push the US bond yields and the US dollar to strengthen simultaneously, and risk assets may face short-term adjustment pressure.

On the other hand, there is a contradiction between economic elasticity and policy lag effect: despite the robust employment market, the suppression of high interest rates on the real economy (such as commercial real estate and consumer credit) may gradually emerge. If economic data weakens in the second half of the year, the Fed's "patient" stance may be forced to loosen, and the market may then re-game the policy turning point. Investors are advised to pay attention to marginal changes in inflation data and Fed wording during fluctuations, and be wary of asset price revaluations caused by expectation gaps. #美联储主席