【Fundamentals】

Note that on February 10, Trump signed an executive order announcing a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imported to the United States. Trump also stated that there would be 'no exceptions or exemptions' to these requirements. Probably due to this news, the price of $btc rapidly fell yesterday morning. Although the price quickly rebounded afterward, it should not be overlooked that every one of Trump's comments regarding tariffs brings significant negative impacts to the market. Looking back at Trump's tariff policy history, its destructive power on the cryptocurrency market has precedent. In March 2018, Trump unilaterally announced a 25% tariff on imported steel and a 10% tariff on aluminum, triggering panic over a global trade war. At that time, the price of $btc plummeted by 15% within 48 hours of the policy announcement, with a market value evaporating by over $30 billion. Even more devastating was the tariff escalation incident between China and the U.S. in May 2020, when Trump threatened to impose a 25% tariff on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods, causing $btc to drop by 12% in one day, and $eth to plunge by 30% due to liquidity panic in the DeFi market.

There exists a clear transmission chain behind this interactivity: tariff policies → contraction of international trade → tightening of dollar liquidity → selling off of risk assets → outflow of funds from the cryptocurrency market. Especially when the Federal Reserve is in a rate-hiking cycle (like in 2022-2023), the input inflation triggered by tariffs will force the central bank to maintain a hawkish stance, further draining market liquidity. Currently, although we are in a rate-cutting cycle, global trade volumes have shrunk for three consecutive quarters. At this time, combined with the impact of tariffs, it may exacerbate the already fragile liquidity. It is not difficult to conclude that tariff policies are becoming a tool for manipulating financial markets. Observing Trump's recent actions reveals a pattern: whenever the Federal Reserve releases dovish signals and risk assets rebound, his team releases tariff news to suppress the market, creating opportunities for low-price accumulation. This “policy shorting” model is particularly evident in the cryptocurrency market.

【Trend Analysis】

Is the rebound about to end? Is it time to prepare for short positions? Taking the 4-hour level as an example, the rebound has not ended. The signal for the end of the rebound is when the price effectively drops below 96800. Until that happens, continue to observe the rebound. The recent pressure above is in the range of 【98500-98800】; a breakthrough in this area will continue to look towards around 99500. Can I set up short positions in the range of 【98500-98800】? Yes, but please ensure a stop loss is in place.

Additionally, since the rebound is still ongoing, low long positions can still be taken. The more suitable positioning area for low long is around 【97100-97500】.

Finally, continuing yesterday's thought, only when the price surpasses the 100,000 round number will the rebound likely turn into a reversal. Before that, treat it as a rebound. The essential difference between a rebound and a reversal is that one requires caution while the other can be viewed optimistically.#你看好哪一个山寨币ETF将通过？ #币安HODLer空投LAYER #比特币后市