Recently, the market has been caught in a tug-of-war, with BTC bulls and bears repeatedly battling between $100,000 and $96,000. In the past week, there has been a significant pullback, briefly breaking below the support level of $91,000. The volatility indicates that investor anxiety about short-term trends is increasing.
Long-term Holder Movements and Market Signals
On February 9, well-known analyst Maartunn shared a set of on-chain data: 14,000 bitcoins with a history of 7 to 10 years have moved on-chain.
The reintroduction of long-dormant bitcoins into circulation is usually seen as an important signal. These movements may indicate various motives—long-term holders might be preparing for potential gains, institutions may be rebalancing their positions, or market participants may be concerned about ongoing selling pressure. Regardless, the reactivation of such a large volume of old bitcoins typically signals imminent price fluctuations. Although such movements are not uncommon during market consolidations, they add further uncertainty to the current market sentiment.
Additionally, analyst DOM has discovered an unprecedented 'Doji' pattern on Bitcoin's daily chart, which typically indicates market uncertainty, similar to the trend following the FTX collapse in November 2022.
DOM states: 'For the first time in Bitcoin's 15-year history, three consecutive 'extreme Doji' candlesticks have appeared, with each candlestick's body accounting for less than 0.05% of the entire candlestick range. This marks extreme indecision in the market and signals imminent volatility.'
It is worth noting that in November 2022, Bitcoin experienced two consecutive 'extreme Doji' candlesticks, after which the price rebounded by 620%. If history repeats itself, Bitcoin may be on the brink of another explosive price volatility.
Key Price Levels and Technical Analysis
TradingView data shows that Bitcoin's current price hovers around $97,600. Analyst Sebastian believes that to reignite bullish momentum, Bitcoin first needs to stabilize above the key level of $98,000, which will lay the groundwork for breaking through the psychological barrier of $100,000. Once Bitcoin successfully breaks and holds above the $100,000 mark, it will confirm the strong return of bullish momentum and is expected to further explore higher supply zones, initiating a new round of upward movement.
However, the demand range of $96,000 to $97,000 must be defended to provide support for potential gains. If this range is lost, it could trigger more selling pressure. In this case, Bitcoin may drop below $95,000 and further test the demand zone near $90,000. Such a trend would severely impact market sentiment and further reinforce bearish expectations.
Bitcoin has recently formed a symmetrical triangle pattern, which usually indicates a significant price breakout.
Market analyst Titan of Crypto points out that Bitcoin's price is expected to break above the upper trend line of the triangle and ultimately reach the target of $116,000. According to technical analysis rules, the upward target is calculated by adding the maximum distance between the upper and lower trend lines of the triangle to the potential breakout point, which provides a theoretical basis for Bitcoin's upward target.
Market Outlook
Grayscale's research director Zach Pandl predicts that, supported by favorable Trump policies, Bitcoin may reach an all-time high in the first quarter of 2025. Nevertheless, $80,000 remains a popular target for many analysts in the short term. Investment research firm Bravo Research points out that if prices fall back to this level, it will provide traders with a 'buy the dip' opportunity.
In summary, Bitcoin is currently at a critical technical juncture, and the balance of power between bulls and bears will determine the market direction in the short term. Investors need to closely monitor the performance of the key levels at $98,000 and $96,000, as a breakout from either side could trigger significant market volatility.
