1. Major news on February 6, 2025
Gold market developments
Global gold prices continue to rise sharply, reaching "parabolic" levels with expectations of a correction to the $2,820/ounce area due to profit-taking pressure. This trend is driven by trade tensions and global inflation.
Traders on the forum believe gold needs to test the $2,820 support level before continuing its upward trend.
U.S. economic data
The ISM Services Index fell from 54.0% (forecast) to 52.8%, reflecting a slowdown in service activity due to severe weather.
German Factory Orders rose 1.9% compared to a previous decline of 5.4%, indicating signs of recovery in the European industry.
U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 8.7 million barrels – the largest increase since February 2024, putting downward pressure on oil prices.
Fed speech
FOMC member Thomas Barkin emphasized that inflation over the next 12 months will decline "significantly" in Q1/2025 and does not support a rate hike in the short term.
Other speeches from Fed members (Goolsbee, Bowman, Jefferson) are expected to impact monetary policy expectations.
Forex market
GBP/USD is under pressure after the UK Construction PMI reached 53.5 (forecast 53.3), but the market is focused on the Bank of England (BOE) interest rate report tonight.
EUR/USD fluctuated slightly after Eurozone retail data fell by 0.1%.
2. Forecast for February 7, 2025
Policy event
The Bank of England (BOE) will release its monetary policy report and interest rate decision (expected to remain at 4.5%).
U.S. employment data: Unemployment Claims data (forecast 214K) and Nonfarm Productivity will affect the USD.
Market developments
Oil prices are expected to continue fluctuating due to geopolitical tensions (related to U.S. policy towards Iran) and energy inventory reports.
Gold may adjust if profit-taking pressure increases, but the upward trend remains supported by trade uncertainties.
Risk warning
Asian markets (such as AUD and JPY) may be affected by Australia's NAB Business Confidence data and Japanese bond auctions.
Trader community perspective
EUR/USD: Many traders are focusing on the resistance area of 1.0400–1.0430, predicting that buyers may be pushed back here.
GBP/USD: The current uptrend is said to "need correction" after three consecutive months of decline (October–December 2024).
Gold: Warning of a strong correction if the price fails to maintain the "parabolic" increase.
3. Assessment:
Today and on February 7, 2025, Forex Factory and various financial sources indicate a focus on important economic data and monetary policy announcements, combined with significant political-trade developments. These news items have the potential to greatly affect global sentiment and capital flows, creating volatility in the financial markets. Therefore, investors and stakeholders need to closely monitor this information to make timely adjustments in their investment portfolios and business strategies.
Note that developments can change rapidly, making continuous updates from reputable sources crucial for making accurate decisions.
