A new statistical study to answer the excellent question of @MrMeudiz đđ
Bitcoin hit $109,382 in January 2025, marking a new ATH. But can this peak really be considered the culmination of the cycle or is it just a stepping stone to an even higher peak?
The history of Bitcoin bull cycles teaches us one essential thing: the timing of the ATH plays a crucial role in the evolution of the market. And according to historical data, 109k in January could be an early top, far from definitive.
A thorough statistical analysis of the time between each halving and the final ATH gives us a troubling answer: this cycle seems to be out of step with previous ones. Letâs see why.
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đč Statistical study: Is the January ATH premature?
| Cycle | Halving | Final ATH | Time between Halving and ATH (days) |
| 2012-2013 | 2012-11-28 | 2013-12-04 ($1,177) | 371 days |
| 2016-2017 | 2016-07-09 | 2017-12-17 ($19,800) | 526 days |
| 2020-2021 | 2020-05-11 | 2021-11-10 ($69,000) | 549 days |
| 2024-2025 | 2024-04-20 | 2025-01-20 ($109,382) | 275 days |
To know if 109k in January 2025 is a logical top or too early, let's analyze previous cycles.
đ Key observation:
The ATH historically occurs around 15-18 months after the halving. However, 109k was reached in just 9 months (275 days) after the 2024 halving.
đ General statistics on past cycles:
Average time between Halving and ATH: 482 days (~16 months)
Standard deviation: 79 days
109k in January 2025 is 2.62 standard deviations below the mean
đ Statistical interpretation:
With a Z-score of -2.62, it is highly unlikely (only ~1% probability in a normal distribution) that 109k is the final ATH of the cycle.
In other words: If Bitcoin cycles repeat themselves, this peak is too early to be the cycle high.
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đč Three possible scenarios for the future
1ïžâŁ đ Bitcoin has reached its final ATH and a bear market begins
Possible if a sudden and prolonged fall follows this peak.
The ATH of 109k would only be confirmed if BTC never goes back above it.
This scenario remains statistically unlikely.
2ïžâŁ đ 109k was an intermediate high, followed by a new ATH later in 2025
Most likely according to statistical study.
The current cycle seems too short compared to previous ones, so a new rise could take place.
If BTC follows the pattern of past cycles, a final ATH could occur between September and December 2025.
3ïžâŁ đ Bitcoin enters a parabolic phase towards a much higher ATH
If BTC breaks above 109k with strong volume and little selling resistance, then it could target 150k or even higher.
This scenario will depend on market momentum and liquidity flow.
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đč Conclusion: 109k is probably not the final ATH
Analysis of past cycles shows that Bitcoin typically takes longer to reach its peak after a halving.
109k in January 2025 is historically too early to be a final ATH.
If BTC history repeats itself, the real top could come between September and December 2025.
đ What to watch now:
â The behavior of whales and big investors â Are they selling massively?
â Trading volumes and liquidity after 109k â Running out of steam or bullish continuation?
â Macroeconomic momentum and interest rates â A favorable environment can extend the cycle.
đ Investors must therefore remain cautious:
If there is a strong correction after 109k, it could be the ATH.
But if BTC resumes its uptrend with force, then this was just an intermediate step.
đ„ And you, do you think that 109k is the definitive peak or just a step before higher? đ€
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đą It's your turn!
Share your opinion in the comments!
Do you have a scenario in mind for the rest of the cycle?
What do your own analyses say?
đ Letâs stay tuned, because the history of Bitcoin is far from being written!