小漂亮
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Bullish
The Ethereum Cancun upgrade was officially deployed on March 13, 2024, at 21:55 Beijing time. Regarding whether the Ethereum Dencun upgrade will repeat the historical pattern of rising first and then falling after its launch on the mainnet on March 13, it is difficult to make a definitive judgment. The following analysis combines historical upgrade situations and current factors:
From the historical price trends of upgrades:
• There are cases of rising first and then falling: After the Byzantium upgrade, the price saw a slight increase, and then over the following weeks dropped to around $250; after the Constantinople upgrade, the price briefly rose but quickly fell below $100; after the Berlin upgrade, the price briefly increased, but also quickly fell below $2000; after the Shanghai upgrade, there was a drop of 400 points within a month.
• There are also other scenarios: After the Muir Glacier upgrade, the price had little to no impact; after the London upgrade in August 2021, the price continued to rise.
From the current situation analysis:
• In terms of market expectations: If the market has fully digested the positive aspects of the Dencun upgrade, there may not be a significant increase after the upgrade. If the market expects the upgrade to bring about major changes, there may be upward price momentum before and after the upgrade.
• In terms of macro and industry environment: If the global macroeconomic environment is stable and improving, and the overall atmosphere of the cryptocurrency market is positive, it may benefit Ethereum's price to remain stable or rise before and after the upgrade. If the market is overall in a bear market or has significant uncertainty, it may suppress Ethereum's price increase.
• In terms of the impact of technological upgrades: If the Dencun upgrade can significantly improve performance and reduce costs as expected, it will increase Ethereum's value in the long term, but this may not be immediately reflected in the price in the short term. If there are technical issues or vulnerabilities during the upgrade process, it may trigger market panic leading to a price drop. $ETH
From the historical price trends of upgrades:
• There are cases of rising first and then falling: After the Byzantium upgrade, the price saw a slight increase, and then over the following weeks dropped to around $250; after the Constantinople upgrade, the price briefly rose but quickly fell below $100; after the Berlin upgrade, the price briefly increased, but also quickly fell below $2000; after the Shanghai upgrade, there was a drop of 400 points within a month.
• There are also other scenarios: After the Muir Glacier upgrade, the price had little to no impact; after the London upgrade in August 2021, the price continued to rise.
From the current situation analysis:
• In terms of market expectations: If the market has fully digested the positive aspects of the Dencun upgrade, there may not be a significant increase after the upgrade. If the market expects the upgrade to bring about major changes, there may be upward price momentum before and after the upgrade.
• In terms of macro and industry environment: If the global macroeconomic environment is stable and improving, and the overall atmosphere of the cryptocurrency market is positive, it may benefit Ethereum's price to remain stable or rise before and after the upgrade. If the market is overall in a bear market or has significant uncertainty, it may suppress Ethereum's price increase.
• In terms of the impact of technological upgrades: If the Dencun upgrade can significantly improve performance and reduce costs as expected, it will increase Ethereum's value in the long term, but this may not be immediately reflected in the price in the short term. If there are technical issues or vulnerabilities during the upgrade process, it may trigger market panic leading to a price drop. $ETH
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