#Macroeconomic News:

Yesterday, Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.5% as expected. As mentioned in the previous analysis on January 21, the differences in market conditions and interest rate hike expectations have been fully priced in, and the market did not show significant corrections. Furthermore, Trump's announcement of favorable policies for crypto and rumors about SOL and XRP futures being passed by the CME have not led to much improvement in the market. This may be due to the excessive pricing of these favorable factors in November.

Regarding the US dollar index, Japan's interest rate hike and the lack of severe tariff policies since Trump's presidency have led to a corresponding retreat of the DXY to around 107, which has somewhat alleviated the dollar index's suppression of market risk appetite.

Regarding the 10-year US Treasury yield, the US10YR currently maintains around 4.625%. The core PCE price index year-on-year will be announced next week (January 31, 2025, 21:30). Based on the CPI situation, there is no significant trend of inflation rebound in various components, combined with a high base effect, the PCE data may continue to decline or flatten, which would be beneficial for the decrease in the 10-year Treasury yield. At the same time, considering that Trump will pressure the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates to stimulate economic growth, such political interference in monetary policy may instead lead to an increase in the 10-year Treasury yield.

Regarding liquidity, the US debt ceiling was officially reached on Trump's first day in office, hitting 36.2 trillion. Currently, the Treasury General Account (TGA) balance stands at 760 billion. When funds flow out of the TGA, bank reserves will increase, expanding the scale of lending or investment in the economy or market. Therefore, before the debt ceiling negotiations on March 14, market liquidity is relatively abundant.

Additionally, based on the aforementioned speculation about inflation data, even if the Federal Reserve FOMC indicates no rate cuts in the January 30 rate decision, there are still expectations for two rate cuts this year. If the market anticipates a rate cut in March, this could also be seen as favorable to some extent.

Regarding other data, next month marks the US earnings season, with the earnings reports of the seven major tech giants set to be released, signaling a critical moment for the US stock market. Meanwhile, with the Chinese New Year approaching, historical market performance indicates that this period usually experiences upward trends.

#On-Chain Data:

On-chain data from Glassnode shows a phase of 'trend decay' signal—profit-taking peaked for the third time on January 23. This signal may suggest that long-term holders are distributing or have entered the final stages, and the second large-scale wealth transfer in this cycle is nearing completion (the first occurred in March 2024). This indicates that new demand from short-term market entrants is limited and unable to absorb the large volume of distributions from long-term holders as before. Additionally, the real capital inflow into BTC is showing a significant downward trend, which cannot be compared to the initial trend launches in March and November 2024.

#Technical Analysis:

The current price remains above the lower reference price (103333) of the EA arbitrage model, with the next resistance level near the highest reference price (around 107793). Weekend liquidity is poor, with more sentiment-driven speculation dominating, and the downside risk has not been completely eliminated, leading to a mainly volatile market. If there is another decline, the support level is seen at the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level (around 99500), which also happens to be a dense area of on-chain trading.

#Future Strategy:

Before a clear upward trend appears, frequent trading and chasing highs and lows are not advisable. Maintain a light position, and try to avoid heavy positions. 'Trade and withdraw,' take profits in a timely manner, and wait for clearer market trends and right-side signals before adding positions.