Yesterday, at 21:30 Beijing time, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released data showing that the CPI for December 2024 rose 2.9% year-on-year, up from 2.7%, marking the highest level since July of last year. The core CPI for December rose 3.2% year-on-year, down from 3.3%.

After the inflation data for December 2024 was released, the market's expectations for the Federal Reserve to pause interest rate cuts in January remained unchanged. As of January 15 local time, the 'Fed Watch' data showed that the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in January was 97.3%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut was 2.7%. The probability of maintaining the current interest rate in March is 72%, while the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 27.3%, and the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is 0.7%.

In addition, Trump is set to be inaugurated on January 20, and the new government may quickly implement a series of policies. Market participants are weighing the potential risks of inflationary tariffs and immigration policies, as well as the impact of Trump's commitment to making the U.S. a global cryptocurrency center. Trump is expected to issue an executive order on his first day in office, which may involve issues related to the banking of the cryptocurrency industry and the repeal of the controversial cryptocurrency accounting rule SAB121.

In terms of cryptocurrency, after the CPI data was released, Bitcoin soared, stopping just 200 dollars short of the $100,000 mark at $99,800. Although it retreated slightly later, it did not stop Bitcoin's upward momentum. Around 4 a.m. today, the price of Bitcoin reached a high of $100,866, breaking the $100,000 mark for the first time since the high drop on January 7. As of the time of writing, the quote is $99,242, with an approximate increase of 2.51% in the last 24 hours.

Bitcoin 4-hour chart

Firstly, based on the Bollinger Bands indicator in the 4H Bitcoin chart, the current price is operating near the upper band, indicating that the market is currently in the overbought area. The price approaching the upper band may suggest that a correction or consolidation is likely to occur soon. If the price corrects to near the middle band, there will be greater support.

Secondly, based on the KDJ indicator in the 4H Bitcoin chart, the KDJ three-line values are in the high overbought area and are crossing downward, forming a death cross pattern. If the J-line value accelerates downward, the subsequent price is likely to correct.

Finally, based on the MACD indicator in the 4H Bitcoin chart, the DIF line is situated above the DEA line, reflecting a strong bullish market. However, the MACD red histogram has begun to gradually shorten, indicating that the upward momentum is weakening, and a correction is likely to occur in the short term. If the DIF line crosses below the DEA line forming a death cross pattern, it may trigger a bearish signal.

Bitcoin 1-hour chart

Firstly, based on the Bollinger Bands indicator in the 1H Bitcoin chart, the current price has broken through the upper band, which is usually a signal that the market is overbought, suggesting that there may be a certain risk of correction in the short term. The middle band serves as a support line, and if the price retreats to near the middle band, it may find support.

Secondly, based on the KDJ indicator in the 1H Bitcoin chart, the K-line value is above the D-line value, and the J-line value is similarly positioned, indicating that the market is currently in a bullish state but has already exceeded the overbought area. If the J-line value starts to fall back and the K-line and D-line values form a death cross pattern downward, it may lead to a price correction.

Finally, based on the MACD indicator in the 1H Bitcoin chart, the DIF line and DEA line have crossed downward, and the MACD green histogram has started to gradually increase, indicating that the market's upward momentum is weakening, presenting a certain risk of a correction. If the DIF line crosses below the DEA line forming a death cross pattern, it will further confirm the possibility of a correction.

In conclusion, the current market shows a strong bullish trend, but due to the interruption of MACD momentum and the KDJ indicator being in the overbought area, a correction or consolidation may occur. If the price breaks below the middle band of the Bollinger Bands or experiences a significant drop, there may be short-term support.

In summary, the expert provides the following advice for reference.

Short Bitcoin at the current price of $99,200-$99,400, targeting $97,600-$96,400, with a stop loss at $99,800.

Giving you a hundred percent accurate advice is not as good as providing you with the right mindset and trends. After all, teaching a person to fish is better than giving them a fish. Advice may help you earn temporarily, but learning the right mindset can help you earn for a lifetime! The focus is on mindset, grasping the trend, and planning your positions and layouts. What I can do is use my practical experience to assist you, keeping your investment decisions and management on the right track.

Writing time: (2025-01-16, 19:00)

(Written by the expert) This is a statement: The information published online has delays, and the above advice is for reference only. The author is dedicated to research and analysis in investment fields such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, altcoins, forex, and stocks, having been involved in the financial market for many years, with rich practical operation experience. Investment carries risks, and one must be cautious when entering the market. For more real-time market analysis, please pay attention to the expert's account for discussion and exchange.#BTC重回10万