#比特币价格走势分析 Standard Chartered warned that to continue to 'enjoy' the rise of Bitcoin, bulls must first temporarily endure a wave of selling, especially if Bitcoin loses this threshold.

Cryptocurrency bulls expect the deregulation agenda of elected President Trump to drive Bitcoin's rise this year. However, they may first have to endure a sell-off. This will happen if Bitcoin falls below $90,000, as Standard Chartered warned of this risk in a report on Tuesday.

Geoff Kendrick, global head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered, wrote, 'We believe that if Bitcoin falls below $90,000, it will lead to a further decline of 10% in the short term, approaching the $80,000 low. The prices of all other digital assets may also fall accordingly, and in this scenario, forced selling or panic selling could significantly exacerbate the ongoing sell-off driven by economic concerns.'

Despite Bitcoin's price briefly touching a high of $97,000 on Tuesday, the currency was still trading near the critical level of $90,000 a day earlier. Like other risk assets, this token has experienced significant volatility this year due to a wave of risk aversion.

Some of the reasons for Bitcoin's decline are related to the same factors troubling stocks and bonds. Bitcoin has dropped over 10% from last month's historical high of $108,000, as investors begin to doubt that the Federal Reserve's monetary policy in 2025 will be less restrictive than previously expected. Bitcoin typically declines when interest rates are higher.

But Kendrick pointed out that from now on, any further declines in crypto assets will become a 'self-fulfilling prophecy.'

Kendrick stated that given the recent price volatility, spot ETF investors who bought Bitcoin since the U.S. presidential election last November have essentially broken even, as long as Bitcoin remains above $90,000. However, a further drop in Bitcoin could trigger panic selling among investors.

He wrote, 'When prices rise, selling mainly comes from long-term holders taking profits. When prices fall, selling mainly comes from short-term holders selling at a loss. On-chain data shows that 50%-70% of recent sell-offs have been at a loss.'

What could cause Bitcoin to break below its support level? While Wednesday's key CPI report will play an important role in the short term, overly optimistic policy expectations may disappoint the market in the coming weeks.

Since Trump's election as president, driven by excitement over pro-cryptocurrency policies, the market has experienced a wave of buying. The incoming administration promises to overhaul regulations through key legislation and pledges never to sell the Bitcoins held by the government. However, Kendrick indicated that if these changes happen quickly, investors may be disappointed. Adjustments could bring Bitcoin down to a low around $80,000, a drop of about 17% from Tuesday’s high.

However, FXPro's chief market analyst, Alex Kuptsikevich, predicted on Monday that a decrease in risk appetite could exacerbate Bitcoin's downward trend in the future. In a negative scenario, Bitcoin could fall back to $74,000. But it is certain that since Monday's 'spike', Bitcoin's return to the critical level of $90,000 has strengthened its recovery prospects.

In the long run, two analysts remain optimistic about this top token. Since last year, Kendrick has predicted that as institutional demand for cryptocurrency rebounds under Trump’s policies, Bitcoin may reach $200,000 by the end of this year.

Risk Warning and Disclaimer: The market is risky, and investment should be approached with caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and does not consider the specific investment goals, financial situations, or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article align with their specific circumstances. Investing based on this is at your own risk.