This wave of Bitcoin's sharp decline was once again 'predicted' by CZ. As early as 2020, CZ tweeted that there would be news of Bitcoin crashing from $100,000 to $85,000 in the future. As a result, after the US stock market opened last night, Bitcoin really dropped to around $86,000 and then began to rebound. This scene is exactly the same as CZ's prediction back then. Last night, CZ added another message: in the future, there will also be news of Bitcoin crashing from $1,000,000 to $985,000. Although CZ has faced considerable controversy for strongly promoting BNB ecosystem projects on his own exchange, his contributions and beliefs in the crypto field are still widely recognized. After all, as the richest person in crypto, everything he says and does is scrutinized under a magnifying glass.
In fact, CZ is not the only one predicting that Bitcoin will rise to $1,000,000. As early as 2017, the founder of McCafee made a similar statement; Cathie Wood also predicted that Bitcoin would reach $1,000,000 by 2030; figures like Tim Draper and Jack Dorsey also believe Bitcoin can exceed $1,000,000. These big names dare to make such bold predictions because Bitcoin has been creating miracles since its inception. When I first entered the crypto world, Bitcoin was only a few thousand yuan; who could have imagined it would rise to $100,000 a few years later? Therefore, as long as you hold onto Bitcoin firmly, you are unlikely to lose money.
There are many reasons for this drop. First is the series of radical policies after Trump took office, such as tariff issues, which negatively impacted interest rate cut expectations. Many investors do not want to pay the price for the financial uncertainty brought by Trump, leading to a severe drop not only in Bitcoin but also in the 'seven sisters' of the US stock market. Tesla's stock plummeted more than 6% yesterday, with its market value dropping below $1 trillion. Moreover, Trump has made too many promises, and many cautious investors feel he is 'talking nonsense,' worried that policies could change at any time.
Another reason is the attitude of various US states toward Bitcoin strategic reserve proposals. Previously, the market speculated that 21 US states would establish Bitcoin strategic reserves ahead of the federal government, expected to bring in $23 billion in capital inflow. But now it seems this expectation needs to cool down. States like Montana, North Dakota, and Wyoming have already voted against related proposals, and Pennsylvania and Mississippi have not passed them either. Currently, only Utah and Arizona have clearly supported the proposals, while Texas, Illinois, and Ohio are still voting. Even if passed, only about half of the funds might enter the market. As for national-level strategic reserves, predictions on Polymarket show that the probability of passing in 2025 is only 46%, a significant drop from 58% at the beginning of the year. No wonder there has been a serious outflow of funds from Bitcoin ETFs recently, with a single-day outflow reaching a record high of $937 million yesterday.
Finally, let's talk about the cyclicality of Bitcoin. Bitcoin has a four-year cycle, which is a characteristic that other financial assets do not possess. Since its birth in 2009, Bitcoin has strictly adhered to this rule. This is why everyone expects the price of Bitcoin to return to $150,000 or even above $200,000 by 2025. However, this is just the general trend; in terms of short-term market conditions, the market inevitably experiences pullbacks, surges, and spikes. For example, from April to June 2021, Bitcoin halved from $63,000 to $30,000, a drop of over 50%. At that time, Musk's announcement to stop accepting Bitcoin for Tesla worsened the situation, but a few months later, Bitcoin returned to the path of hitting new highs.
The current market pullback is nothing significant; it’s just that many people are feeling pessimistic, mainly because most altcoins haven't kept up with Bitcoin's upward pace, instead continuously hitting new lows with each drop. This is an issue of market capital structure, and the elimination of junk projects is a natural law. What we need to do is embrace valuable sectors, such as AI, RWA, DePIN, DeFi, L1, L2, and various infrastructures. The most important thing in the bull market of 2025 is to seek stability; don’t hold onto junk coins or play contracts blindly. Focusing on leading projects can yield excess returns.
Currently, the secondary market is not doing well, so it’s better to seize opportunities in the primary market. Dongchen has been looking for high-potential golden dogs today, and after a day's effort, he finally found one in the afternoon! He precisely grasped the timing to enter the market, successfully leading his partners to achieve a 7-fold increase. As always, Dongchen doesn’t act lightly; when he does, he must grasp it well! This is strength!
If you are feeling helpless or confused while trading at the moment, I hope my sharing can inspire and help you!
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Investing carries risks; the above content is a personal sharing and does not constitute investment advice!