After the price analysis $BTC , we have confirmed that there is a final bullish wave that may reach the $118,000 level. But to understand the market more deeply, let's move on to the time analysis.

🔺 Time analysis according to Gann squares

In the previous analysis, we used Gann time boxes, which indicated that the current cycle would end and the top would be achieved by March 2025. According to this scenario, the discharge phase would start immediately after that.

But today let's add time analysis according to halving cycles.

If we go back to the history of previous halving cycles:

1. Halving 2012: Summit achieved after 364 days.

2. Halving 2016: The peak was reached after 525 days.

3. Halving 2020: The summit was achieved after 336 days.

Based on this data, the average time between the halving and the peak is 408 days.

With the last halving occurring on April 20, 2024, we can expect the top to occur around June 2025.

🔺 Conjugation according to Wyckoff methodology

From March to September 2025, the market is expected to enter an orderly liquidation phase according to the Wyckoff methodology. As we know, liquidation usually goes through the following stages:

1. BC (Buying Climax): The buying climax, where the top is recorded.

2. UT (Upthrust): Fake bullish tests to confirm weak demand.

3. UTAD (Upthrust After Distribution): Recent breakouts to attract buyers before a breakdown.

These phases will form the expected time frame for market movement during that period, indicating the beginning of a bearish phase after the dissolution.

The bull market is not over yet, and there is one last rally expected to achieve the top.

However, from March to September 2025, the market will start entering a Wyckoff discharge phase, going through the classic discharge phases (BC, UT, UTAD). This time frame scenario should be carefully prepared to avoid falling into market traps during this phase.

🔺 A future outlook for the upcoming downward cycle

Expected price bottom: $32,000, represents the major reversal point for the market.

Expected bottom: February 2028, coinciding with the next halving, which increases the possibility of a new cycle of accumulation and preparation for the rise.

This coincidence between the time bottom and the halving indicates that the market continues to be in line with historical Bitcoin cycles, where bear market bottoms come as a preparatory stage before large upward moves.

Note: See Analysis

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