The thought wasn’t voiced, but to me, it’s quite obvious. I’ll mention it just in case!
If the DOJ sells Bitcoin worth $6.5 billion, that’s an enormous amount for the market. For comparison, Michael Saylor’s announced fundraising is only $2 billion. They won’t sell it all in one day—it will take weeks or even months. Until they finish selling, speculators won’t rush to buy.
We’ve already been told that the Federal Reserve isn’t ready to create a Bitcoin fund, as it’s legally restricted. Moreover, after the current Bitcoin sales, this became clear to everyone who still had hope for it.
I saw your statement about $8 billion being freed up after the FTX bankruptcy—that’s not true. 70% of this money has already been paid out during pre-court settlements because it wasn’t clear whether FTX had funds or not. You could sell your claim for 30-70% of its nominal value. This means this money is either already in the market or will never return here.
Let’s not forget about the Bitcoin distribution from MGox. Considering the sharply changed fundamental environment, I’m confident that some recipients of the distributed Bitcoin will gladly cash out, just like many retail investors who were lucky to buy at much lower prices and now understand that the U.S. government isn’t sending Bitcoin to the moon.
Michael Saylor must be fuming over this situation, as people like to say in trendy Reels. He thought he would buy up all the available volume and push the price higher. Now, that seems unlikely, given this sudden influx of supply.
You might argue that Bitcoin will be sold OTC and not on the market. That’s partly true, but OTC desks also buy part of their supply from the market to meet demand. Now, they have plenty of supply and no need to do so.
Could someone step in and buy everything at once? Maybe a fund like Saudi Arabia’s, but big players like BlackRock and others playing the long game have no reason to. Price declines only benefit them. If we test bids at $90-80k for a month or two, it’ll work in their favor. Nobody’s in a hurry