Both of these data points have a very high market impact (five stars), and therefore investors generally regard them as important references for assessing the direction of the U.S. economy and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.
🔎 1. Unemployment Rate Analysis and Forecast
Previous Value: 4.20%
Expected: 4.20%
Background Analysis:
• In recent months, the U.S. labor market has continued to perform robustly, with the unemployment rate consistently maintaining a relatively low level (around 4%).
• The Federal Reserve has repeatedly emphasized in previous meetings that the tight labor market is one of the reasons for persistently high inflation. If the unemployment rate continues to be below expectations, the Federal Reserve may maintain a hawkish stance and keep interest rates high.
Forecast:
• Neutral Forecast: 4.2% (in line with expectations)
If the unemployment rate aligns with expectations, the market reaction will be relatively muted, and there won't be significant changes in Federal Reserve policy expectations.
• Optimistic Forecast: 4.1% (slightly below expectations)
If the unemployment rate decreases, it indicates that the U.S. job market remains strong, which may be beneficial for the dollar while putting pressure on risk assets (like cryptocurrencies and gold).
• Pessimistic Forecast: 4.3% (higher than expected)
If the unemployment rate rises, it will strengthen market concerns about economic slowdown, and the Federal Reserve may shift to a more accommodative policy, which would be unfavorable for the dollar but favorable for safe-haven assets like gold and bitcoin.
🔎 2. Non-farm Employment Population Change Analysis and Forecast
Previous Value: 227,000
Expected: 160,000
Background Analysis:
• U.S. non-farm payroll data is a key indicator of economic growth and the health of the job market.
• Last month's non-farm payrolls exceeded expectations significantly, reaching 227,000, far surpassing the market expectation of 170,000.
• Recently, U.S. economic data (such as GDP and PMI) has also shown relatively strong performance, indicating that economic activity has not shown significant signs of slowing down.
Forecast:
• Neutral Forecast: 180,000
Non-farm employment data is expected to be slightly higher than the expected 160,000, but it is unlikely to reach last month's high value. If the data meets this forecast, the market may interpret it as the job market still being robust, and the Federal Reserve will not rush to cut rates in the short term.
• Optimistic Forecast: 200,000+
If non-farm data exceeds 200,000 again, it will further strengthen the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, benefiting the dollar and putting pressure on risk assets.
• Pessimistic Forecast: Below 150,000
If non-farm data is below 150,000, the market will believe the labor market is starting to cool, posing a risk of economic slowdown. The Federal Reserve may consider stopping interest rate hikes or even shifting to rate cuts in the coming months.
🔗 Comprehensive Impact Analysis:
Data Results Market Reaction Impact Analysis
Non-farm > 200,000 & Unemployment Rate ≤ 4.2% Dollar strengthens significantly, risk assets come under pressure Federal Reserve will continue hawkish, assets like cryptocurrencies and gold may decline
Non-farm 160-180,000 & Unemployment Rate 4.2% Market reacts calmly Data meets expectations, market trends are not significant
Non-farm < 150,000 & Unemployment Rate ≥ 4.3% Dollar weakens, safe-haven assets rise The Federal Reserve may shift to an accommodative policy, benefiting gold and cryptocurrencies
✅ My Forecast Conclusion:
• Unemployment Rate Forecast: 4.1%
• Non-farm Employment Population: 180,000
Market Interpretation:
• If my forecast comes true, the market will interpret it as the labor market remaining robust, and the Federal Reserve will not temporarily change its tightening policy. This would be beneficial for the dollar but could create some pressure on risk assets like gold and bitcoin.
• However, if the data falls short of expectations (unemployment rate rises, non-farm below 160,000), the market will start to bet that the Federal Reserve will soon stop raising interest rates or even shift to rate cuts, at which point assets like gold and bitcoin may benefit.
