Original Title: The 8 States of Crypto + 6 Narrative Trends
Original Author: arndxt
Compiled by: Luke, Mars Finance
This article will delve into the 8 key current states and 6 major narrative trends in the crypto space, summarizing key insights and market dynamics. These contents cover the rise of AI agents to the resurgence of memecoins, and from Bitcoin's consolidation to Solana's explosive performance. Here is a detailed interpretation of the specific content:
Eight Key Current States
Here is an overview of the 8 key current states in the crypto market:
1. The market capitalization of AI agents is relatively small
Although Virtuals (an AI agent launch platform) has seen its market cap soar to about $4 billion, the total market cap of AI agents themselves is only about $1 billion.
While AI agents have recently become one of the hottest narratives, there is still significant growth potential in this field as adoption and market attention continue to rise.
2. A surge in trading volume on decentralized exchanges (DEX) and centralized exchanges (CEX)
The popularity of perpetual contract DEXs has surged, while more projects have achieved billion-dollar valuations without relying on centralized exchange listings. This marks an important step towards a more decentralized trading ecosystem, aligning with the vision of DeFi.
3. The focus on DeSci (Decentralized Science) has surged
The popularity of decentralized science (DeSci) has significantly increased, attracting more developers and researchers.
Although some narratives (such as liquid staking, BRC-20, modular design, L2, and RWA) are gradually losing momentum, the rapid rise of DeSci may bring new opportunities for innovation.
4. Bitcoin supply on exchanges continues to decrease
The ratio of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) on exchanges continues to decline, indicating that whales and long-term holders are accumulating assets.
Low supply on exchanges typically reduces selling pressure, bringing bullish momentum to Bitcoin.
5. Programmable Bitcoin: Stacks launches sBTC
Stacks has launched sBTC, an asset pegged 1:1 to Bitcoin, designed to unlock about $2 trillion of Bitcoin liquidity for DeFi.
Holders of sBTC can 'make Bitcoin work' in the following ways:
Base yield: approximately 5% annualized Bitcoin yield;
Lending yield: approximately 6% APY on platforms like Zest;
More high-yield opportunities are coming soon.
This brings new applications for Bitcoin, potentially driving more Bitcoin-related DeFi innovations.
6. Stablecoin supply reaches all-time high (ATH)
The circulation of stablecoins has grown from $125 billion at the beginning of 2024 to $200 billion now, with annual transaction volume exceeding Visa. This trend proves that stablecoins are a trillion-dollar market with immense potential.
7. Monthly crypto financing is on the rise
Although there is still a gap compared to the peak period in 2021, the deployment of private investment capital has significantly increased. Historically, financing peaks typically occur at market tops; the current growth suggests the market is still in the early stages of a growth cycle rather than a frenzied peak.
Additional Observations: The rapid rise of Solana
In December, Solana generated $431 million in fee revenue in just one month, surpassing the total of all other L1s.
Solana's activity across many key metrics has matched that of Ethereum, and the upcoming Firedancer upgrade could further enhance its scalability and network utilization. In a multi-chain future, Ethereum and Solana are likely to coexist.
Six Major Narrative Trends
Here are the 6 major narrative trends currently in the market:
1. Bitcoin consolidation and potential bottom
Bitcoin has recently consolidated in the range of $94,000 to $95,000, with several dips below $94,000 to $93,000. The current price is close to $97,000.
The price range in this episode may indicate a bottom is about to form, but there is still potential for a re-test of the $88,000 to $92,000 area. If Bitcoin trends upwards, altcoins may outperform the market, similar to the 2021 bull market.
2. AI agents dominate market narratives
Key Performer: $VIRTUAL, an AI agent launch platform based on Base, has doubled its market cap from $2.5 billion to $5 billion in 10 days.
Other projects in the ecosystem:
$AIXBT: a Twitter-based agent, growing from $300 million to $600 million;
$GAME: close to $400 million;
$AI16Z (based on Solana): increasing from $1 billion to $2.5 billion.
Other noteworthy projects include:
$ZEREBRO ($800 million), $GRIFFAIN ($470 million), $ARC ($400 million).
AI agents are leading a new wave of innovation, attracting substantial investment and attention.
3. The return of memecoins and Murad coins
Rising Stars:
$SPX and $GIGA both reached all-time highs, with $SPX exceeding $1 billion and $GIGA reaching $800 million.
$KEKIUS: surged to $400 million due to Elon Musk changing his Twitter avatar, but then quickly retraced -75%.
Potentially explosive memecoins: $WIF, $POPCAT, and $FWOG.
4. Highlights of the altcoin market
$XRP (+15%), $XLM (+35%) perform strongly.
Fantom Restructuring: $FTM is being restructured to $S, with the price rebounding after a temporary drop from $0.66, possibly a potential bullish opportunity.
Centralized exchange tokens:
$BGB: has quadrupled since December, with a current market cap of $7.5 billion;
$GT: up 50%.
5. Notable performers and new projects
Fuel Network ($FUEL): a strong-performing new Layer 2.
$MORPHO: continues to set new highs.
Other new coins:
$PEAQ and $USUAL perform strongly;
$VANA and $XION are building a base.
6. Peculiar price behavior
$UXLINK: highly volatile, experiencing a significant squeeze (+140%) before quickly retracing.
$MOCA: exhibited a fierce pump-and-dump pattern after being listed on Binance.
Summary
The current crypto market is undergoing rapid evolution. The rise of AI agents, the resurgence of memecoins, and the strong performance of Solana are redefining market narratives.
In 2025, as DeFAI evolves, we may witness a whole new landscape of cryptocurrencies!
