Last night, both long and short positions in Bitcoin fought fiercely below the 30-day moving average of 98,200. The flickering macro signals worried people, reminiscent of the flickering night sky in 'The Three-Body Problem'... But don't be afraid; the crypto world has no new stories, and don't worry about the industry lacking innovation. Just wait for the wind to come; when it arrives, the stories, innovations, and positivity we need will all return. Capital says there must be light, so...
A fluctuation of about 5% in the crypto market is very normal; let's not forget that we are a globally open super casino operating 24 hours a day. If BTC breaks below 55%, it will be a starting point.
First, from the perspective of daily indicators, I believe the indicators for Bitcoin have adjusted adequately.
The range from 100,000 to 92,000 serves as a downward continuation, and the possibility of a significant downward adjustment is low; the greater probability is to make a shrinking adjustment in this range and then move upwards.
1. The adjustment since the high point of 109353 is a relatively complex joint adjustment.
2. The rebound from the low of 91530 has not shown obvious momentum, indicating that Bitcoin is still in consolidation.
3. The overall bull market trend has not changed; this is just an adjustment, and the large scale has found support at the MA60 moving average on the daily level.
From the above judgment, the strategy of breaking through on the right side may frequently hit stop losses in this market, so the left-side strategy of buying on dips (pullbacks) is more suitable for the current market.
The American holiday is coming to an end, starting this week, liquidity may begin to return, and altcoins remain the focus.
Focus on two renamed coins
1. MKR to SKY
From the beginning until now, it has remained unchanged. I bought near the bottom line in September, and the red circles along the way are positions I have operated. One advantage of old projects is the comparison of candlestick charts; if an old tree can bloom new flowers, it will be easier to gain trust than new projects.
2. FTM to S
I remember this project is AC's favorite, with old trees bearing new flowers. There was a round in October 2023, it was washed out after gaining less than double, and the altcoin season at the beginning of 2024 has surged 3 times.
The patterns of the above two coins tell me that there has always been capital playing inside, so they are worth paying attention to.
Macroeconomic aspects
1. In the absence of news to stimulate sentiment in other areas, we need to pay attention to the non-farm payroll and unemployment rate on January 10 to see if they can be key points for market stimulation. However, I personally believe the impact won't be too strong.
2. With half a month left until Trump's inauguration on January 20, we can focus on Trump-related memes.
Bitcoin is in the market, so ETH and SOL are also in the market. They're almost squeezing oil out of the circle. All I can say is, patience is one of the most essential qualities in an investment career.
Recently, the AI Agent sector has skyrocketed crazily, and new friends are very envious. If you want to catch this wave, take a look.
1. Large position selection
Projects like ai16z, ZEREBRO, AIXBT, GOAT, VIrtual, and other consensus-driven pioneering projects have already emerged, just like DeFi Summer made heavy bets on MKR, COMP, UNI, LINK, etc.
2. Medium position selection
Projects like arc, REI, Focai, ELIZA, Swarms, SPORE, SNAI, ALCH, NEUR are still in the chaotic battle stage of technical framework standards and innovative models.
3. Small position selection
Rushing into various flying CA small projects may seem appealing at first glance, but there are significant market fluctuations for projects like MetaV, stoic, SYMX, TAOCAT, ZAILGO, POLY, etc. Similar projects will have many in the early stage, but the mixed impostors will also be the most among them. (We need to be careful in distinguishing).
Summary: On-chain position layout is suggested as 5 + 4 + 1 layout.
