In mid-June 2025, amidst market calm, seasoned technical analyst Tony 'Bull' Severino (CMT) released a monthly candlestick chart for Dogecoin (DOGE), revealing that the vitality of this meme coin may be quietly fading.
Is Dogecoin just playing dead?
Dogecoin's price is $0.1694, down about 2.3% for the day. The three black arrows in the chart precisely mark the turning points where past price momentum shifted from strong to weak:
The first arrow points to January 2018, where Dogecoin briefly surged to $0.02, only to almost entirely retrace its gains;
The second arrow marks the frenzied peak in May 2021, where the price soared to nearly $0.70, but it initiated a two-year decline;
The third arrow points to recent data, where the high in May 2025 only reached $0.26 and has now retreated below the psychological level of $0.20. These arrows not only outline the ups and downs of the price but also suggest that Dogecoin may be entering a new phase of weakness.
The monthly candlestick chart for Dogecoin indicates that the long-term MACD (LMACD) has issued a bearish signal: the blue fast line (0.1440) has crossed below the orange signal line (0.1704), and the histogram has turned negative (-0.0263). Historically, after price surges in 2017 and 2021, the histogram retreated to red, and Dogecoin fell into a multi-year bear market. The current pattern closely resembles the early stages of the 2018 and 2022 downturns, which Severino describes as 'playing dead', suggesting that the price may further drop towards historical support levels.
Dogecoin has recently failed to break through the key resistance at $0.1820, and the price has turned downward, underperforming Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Bears have consecutively breached the support levels of $0.1800 and $0.1780, reaching a low of $0.1641. Currently, the price has slightly rebounded near the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the decline from $0.1641 to $0.1811 and has broken the bearish trend line resistance at $0.1680 on the hourly chart. However, the price remains constrained by $0.1780 and the 100-hour moving average.
In the short term, resistance is at $0.1725 (50% Fibonacci retracement level), followed by $0.1750 and $0.1820. If it can break above $0.1820, the price may test $0.1880 or even $0.200; conversely, if it cannot hold above $0.1725, the bears may exert pressure again, driving the price down to $0.1641 or lower.
Future Outlook: Sleep or Wake?
For long-term traders, whether the price can hold the key support in the coming months, as the histogram moves further downward, will determine if Dogecoin continues to 'play dead' in slumber or 'wakes up' with a new round of speculative enthusiasm. As of publication, Dogecoin's trading price is $0.168.
