Against the backdrop of the Christmas and New Year holidays, the BTC market may experience short-term fluctuations, but overall the bullish and bearish forces are relatively balanced. The uncertainty of policies after Trump’s presidency may become an important variable for the BTC market in 2025. Investors are advised to pay attention to the breakthrough of the key resistance at $110,000 while remaining vigilant about changes in liquidity at the end of the year, and to dynamically adjust strategies in conjunction with news, capital, and technical analysis.
News:
1. Christmas and New Year effect:
• During the year-end holiday period, investors may choose to cash out due to the need for liquidity, which usually puts certain pressure on BTC prices. However, on the other hand, market liquidity may decrease due to holidays, amplifying price fluctuations and creating short-term opportunities.
• During Christmas, more and more people are giving Bitcoin as gifts to family or friends, which may have a positive impact on BTC demand.
2. Impact of Trump's presidency:
• Trump's second term will implement more tax cuts, deregulation, and other policies, which may strengthen dollar assets and exert certain pressure on Bitcoin.
• At the same time, Trump's challenge to the traditional financial system and potential trade protectionist policies may increase Bitcoin's attractiveness as a safe-haven asset.
Capital:
1. Year-end liquidity pressure:
• Some institutional investors may reduce Bitcoin holdings due to annual audit and settlement requirements, which could lead to short-term selling pressure.
• On the other hand, the increased institutionalization of the crypto market allows more funds to flow into Bitcoin ETFs and related products, providing support for the market.
2. Changes in global liquidity:
• Signals from the Federal Reserve to slow down interest rate cuts may limit the expansion of global market liquidity and weaken the influx of speculative funds into the crypto market.
• However, China's loose monetary policy and the issuance of ultra-long special bonds may indirectly drive some Asian funds into the crypto market.
Technical analysis:
1. Key resistance and support levels:
• BTC currently faces strong resistance at the $110,000 level; breaking through this position may open up further upward space to $120,000 or even higher.
• The key support levels below are around $106,000 and $100,000; if these positions are broken, a retracement to the $98,000 area may occur.
2. Performance of technical indicators:
• The daily RSI indicator is approaching the overbought zone, which may lead to fluctuations or corrections in the short term.
• Trading volume shows that bullish strength remains strong, and the MACD indicator maintains an upward trend, but caution is needed for potential top divergence risks.