#2025加密趋势预测
• $BTC historically performed well during bull market festive periods, but the performance in December 2024 broke this trend.
• Technical Analysis Indicators:
• Golden Cross and Death Cross: A golden cross (the 30-day moving average crosses above the 100-day moving average) is typically seen as a buy signal, while a death cross (the 30-day moving average crosses below the 100-day moving average) is a sell signal. After the golden cross appeared in July 2020, the price surged significantly; another golden cross occurred at the beginning of 2023, indicating a new round of upward trend.
• Trend Confirmation: During a bull market, the price line is above the 30-day moving average, and the 30-day moving average is above the 100-day moving average; during a bear market, the price line is below the 30-day moving average, and the 30-day moving average is below the 100-day moving average. In the second half of 2023, the price line broke through and remained above both moving averages, confirming the upward trend.
• Market Sentiment and Derivatives Data:
• Bitcoin derivatives data remains neutral to bullish, indicating that significant price fluctuations have not substantially affected market sentiment. This market positioning supports the possibility of Bitcoin breaking through $105,000.
• The trading price of Bitcoin futures monthly contracts is 12% higher than the conventional spot market, indicating strong demand for leveraged long (buy) positions.
• Price Prediction:
• Based on Bitcoin's historical patterns, its price peaks and troughs typically occur every four years, providing a basis for predicting future prices using logarithmic regression.
• By mid-2025, Bitcoin may reach between $102,000 and $140,000.
• The cup-and-handle chart pattern and Fibonacci extension provide additional bullish price targets in the range of $100,000 to $105,000.
In summary, after experiencing a correction from historical highs, market sentiment for Bitcoin remains neutral to bullish, and technical indicators and market positioning support the possibility of Bitcoin further rising to $105,000 or even higher prices.
