Good day Crypto nation.

In this brief article, we will address the following topics:

  • Why did it fall so hard, and was it possible to know?

  • Reflection on today's trades

  • What can we expect? Is the Bull market over?

First of all, I would like to send a hug from afar to all those who liquidated their accounts today; I hope you can recover and that it wasn't too catastrophic for your finances.

To those who are 'trapped' in spot and futures operations, keep reading. There is something for you.

Why did we have today's drop?

  • Announced death or black swan?

I really expected these drops since last week; when I warned that drops could come, it wasn't to mock or be bearish. It was a warning for all of you who read me and follow my posts.

The reality is that there are no news or fundamentals giving a reason for the drop. It categorizes more as price manipulation by the whales; however, it was something expected.

The metrics were too overheated, meaning the open interest in futures was more than overfed, something normal after so many rises. The issue is that, those who were winning were us, more than the whales. In this rise, we were able to gain a lot in a short time, and for the price to rise, they have to take us off the boat.

In summary, this drop was a purge of longs. The way it fell can only be explained by a position squeeze. They drop the price to create a cascading effect and we get left out.

For that reason, I warned that I had closed all positions and to be careful with the start of the week. It is not to blame, it is to have a clear conscience that I could help many protect their capital.

In any case, the institutions made a slight error last week:

  • When BTC broke strongly past 91K in a few minutes, they ruined the element of surprise and many of us got out in time.

What that event indicated is that the market was very loaded and ready to be cleaned, but they waited until Monday to make it more surprising.

Personal reflection:

I will be very honest, today I had a blow to my humility when almost all my entries hit the stop loss, and it had been a long time since that happened to me.

In the last months, I had some spectacular months, multiplying my account by 7 times, and that played against me.

Today I was expecting entries and I got careless, I admit it. I analyzed the structure in 4Hs and had a bullish bias; I didn't think it would fall more... Even, in a careless operation, I left it without a stop loss and it was completely consumed.

What did I learn? That it doesn't matter when you win; you shouldn't lose your humility or trade confidently without measuring twice.

To make matters worse, I had a couple of positive hours in all positions. Because of that, I became unconcerned, and when I looked back, I couldn't believe the bleeding that occurred.

I am grateful because despite everything I managed to remain calm and not trade out of revenge, as well as use stop loss, so the losses were minimal, except for the position that burned... But in balance, it could have been worse.

What I want to say is that, even I make mistakes and keep learning a little more every day. In other times, when I just started, a day like today would have liquidated my entire account.

What can we expect?

Going back to being self-referential, the trades I lost today were due to analysis on 4h charts. The complicated part is that all structures in 4h timeframe and below were broken and invalidated, leading to a corrective moment.

That means that the few impulses we see in the coming days will be retracements to continue falling.

Fortunately, things change in higher charts:

In daily and weekly timeframes, the structure remains perfectly bullish; all the lows of today were above the origin of the last impulse, that is, at the daily structural level, there is still room to rise.

What we must understand these days is that the predisposition is to continue dropping a little more. During this week, it is most likely that we will see the following:

  • Small impulses that will not exceed previous highs.

  • A brief period of lateralization and consolidation.

  • A few rather dull days until the corrective waves finish.

This is not like the useless ones who warn that it will fall tomorrow, only to rise in two days... As if it were the weather, it is a guide based on structures and fractals, that is, the behavior of the price that has historically occurred.

When should we worry?

This structure or corrective moment can be invalidated if:

  • There is a sudden increase in capital inflow, and we see a higher high. That would leave us with a brief trap.

  • If the price falls below today's lows. In that case, it already affects daily structures and complicates things further.

Conclusions:

I reiterate again, I hope you haven't lost too much money. To those who saw their accounts evaporate, I send my love from afar; I hope you recover.

In summary:

  • Today's drop was completely necessary and had already been warned. Institutional capital had been preparing this for a while.

From today, let’s learn that no one is safe. That’s why we must be prepared and cautious, use stop loss, not leverage too much, and take care of our money, otherwise they will keep it.

  • Today was a bad day for me.

I wish it were different, but today I lost too.

I got careless after a very good streak and this time I lost.

It served me because it gave me a blow to my humility and made me step down a notch.

  • The party continues.

We are going to have a few flat days; however, the rally continues.

Now we are going to make even more money; we have crypto at discounted prices and we are strictly remaining bullish. So as long as it lasts, we will continue multiplying money.

We will look for entries in key areas as we have so far, and screw the whales; they will not bend us.

The Citizen Crypto says goodbye!!

I would like you to share in the comments, how was your day? Did you have losses, were you out, or how did you experience it? I want to read you.