After Bitcoin rose all the way to $100,000, it plunged sharply downward this morning, with a 24-hour liquidation of about $600 million. The CMC altcoin seasonal index rose to 88, and the market has been rising for nearly 100 consecutive days, entering a critical moment.
Bitcoin plunges to $90,500
Yesterday, BTC broke through $100,000 and then fell all the way in the evening. At 6:28 a.m. on December 6, BTC/USDT experienced an extreme spike, and BTC fell to $90,500 in a short period of time. The liquidation of $477 million in 12 hours was mainly caused by long orders, reaching $410 million. It has gradually recovered to $97,860, and other altcoins such as ETH have also gradually recovered after a short-term correction.
Bitcoin spot ETF data can help us understand the movement of OTC funds. When the net inflow is large, the buying volume increases and the Bitcoin price is more likely to rise. According to SoSovalue data, Bitcoin spot ETF is still in a state of continuous net inflow, but the amount of inflow is gradually decreasing. After rising continuously, the Bitcoin funding rate reached a high point on December 5. With the liquidation of long leverage yesterday, it has now fallen back, which means that the market's bullish momentum has decreased.
In addition, on the morning of December 6, US President-elect Trump announced that he would appoint David O. Sacks as the White House Director of Artificial Intelligence and Cryptocurrency. As a crypto-friendly person, David O. Sacks showed a firm belief in crypto in his early years. In 2018, David O. Sacks also joined the advisory board of the core team of the decentralized trading protocol 0x. With David O. Sacks taking office, Bitcoin may rise again.
MicroStrategy, which is strongly related to Bitcoin, is also expected to be included in the Nasdaq 100 Index, thus entering the world's largest ETF: QQQ, which will bring passive capital inflows to MSTR. Currently, MSTR has met all the conditions for entering the Nasdaq 100 Index and ranks 66th in market value among eligible companies, while the top 75 companies will be automatically included in the Nasdaq 100 Index.
The copycat market continues to rise, and the AI sector is rising across the board
Although BTC experienced a spike yesterday, altcoins did not fall severely, and market sentiment remained optimistic, with the Greed Index reaching 72.
On December 6, OpenAI held an official press conference. On the first day, the full version of o1 was released, and o1 Pro Mode was also provided. o1 has made breakthrough progress in three key areas: solving difficult math problems, testing programming skills, and analyzing complex scientific problems. Compared with the preview version, all indicators have generally improved by more than 40%. The progress of version updates will continue to be released in the next 12 days.
The AI sector has seen a general rise, possibly due to the positive impact of the OpenAI conference. According to SoSovalue data, the AI sector saw a general rise yesterday. According to Bitget market data, JASMY rose 45.26% in 24 hours; MASA rose 28.96% in 24 hours; WLD rose 25.86% in 24 hours; RENDER and ANKR also rose 20% in 24 hours.
The NFT sector has also gradually recovered in the past seven days, becoming the sector with the largest increase of 30% in the past seven days. According to CryptoSlam data, the CryptoSlam 500 NFT Composite Index, which measures the performance of the NFT market, has also rebounded by about 33% in the past three months.
In addition, the DeFi sector has also risen continuously. CRV has risen by 60% in the past week, MORPHO has risen by about 75% in the past week, and tokens such as UNI and AAVE have also performed very well. Among the public chain tokens, the old "zombie coins" XRP, XLM, and ALGO fell after a continuous rise, while the MOVE token SUI has risen all the way, breaking through 4 USDT, and has risen by 25% in recent days.
The Shanzhai Index continues to rise, and market sentiment remains optimistic
Judging from the indicators of the November cottage season, all indicators have risen across the board. The market may have reached a high point in the short term. Market sentiment remains optimistic and we are now entering a critical moment.
From the perspective of the altcoin season indicator, the current value has risen to 88. This indicator is designed to measure the profitability of altcoins compared to Bitcoin. Specifically, it represents how many tokens in the top 50 altcoins performed better than BTC in the previous quarter (90 days). The larger the value, the more it means that the current altcoin season is. Compared with around 30 in early November, this value has reached a high point this year.
Upbit’s altcoin trading volume, as the basis of the market’s FOMO sentiment index, can also reflect the current status of the altcoin season to a certain extent. Generally speaking, when Koreans are crazy about FOMO and the trading volume reaches the top, it is time to escape the top. At present, this value has also reached this year’s high.
From the perspective of BTC market share, it reached a peak of 61% on November 21. According to history, when the market value of Bitcoin reaches the range of 65-70%, it usually ushered in the altcoin season. This year, after reaching 61%, the altcoins have started to rise across the board. After that, BTC.D continued to decline and has now dropped to 55%.
Analysts have different views in the late market
Analysts have different views on the late stage of the market, and the market may enter a critical moment of game-playing.
Geoffrey Kendrick, head of emerging market foreign exchange research and cryptocurrency research at Standard Chartered Bank, said, "Further optimistic about the future, it is expected that the price of Bitcoin will rise to about $200,000 by the end of next year as institutions may increase their investment in Bitcoin." He claimed in the report, "By 2025, Standard Chartered expects that institutional capital flows will continue to maintain or exceed the rate of inflows into Bitcoin in 2024."
Oppenheimer analyst Lau warned investors that Bitcoin prices will be volatile. He said, "Once the price of Bitcoin reaches $100,000, investors need to be cautious. There may be selling pressure and the market will look for the next breakthrough point."
Trader Paul Wei said, "BTC's unilateral rapid rise has lasted for about 90 days since September 7, and will reach 100 days around December 14. According to history, the market may experience a correction trend every 100 consecutive days of rise."
