Who will win the US election?
While Trump has a clear advantage in prediction markets, the latest economic data suggests that incumbent Harris could benefit from some positives.
Justin Begley, an economist at Moody's Analytics, said that based on an analysis of historical election data, the election results in four key states (Georgia, North Carolina, Nevada and Pennsylvania) are difficult to predict, accounting for a combined 57 votes. Electoral votes.
Recent simulations show that significant declines in mortgage rates and continued declines in gas prices are improving Harris' odds.
Additionally, an increase in family income may also help her odds. Begley pointed out that Harris' projected advantage in the national popular vote increased by 0.2 percentage points, mainly due to an increase in the forecast of real household income in each state.
The model shows that Harris has a 55.5% chance of winning.